Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 231116
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
616 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Strip of stratus stretching across the center of the forecast area
will should largely dissipate by daybreak, paving the way for a
very nice spring day across the area.

I nudged temperatures up a couple degrees for today, as we ended
up a few degrees warmer than expected yesterday. Scattered high
clouds and some diurnal cumulus may develop in the afternoon, but
shouldn`t have a big impact on temperatures.

Tonight, an upper trough is forecast to move out of Montana into
Wyoming and eventually into the western Nebraska. This feature will
bring rain to the area on Tuesday. This will also force a surface
cold front through the region, leading to gusty northwest winds
through the day on Tuesday.

Rain chances continue through Tuesday as the system slowly
traverses eastward. There will be some dry time...especially for
western portions of the forecast area, but it will likely remain
cool and damp with low clouds and temperatures only in the 50s.

Tuesday night, the wave will continue to push southward, and as it
does so, we may see another uptick in precipitation on the northeast
side of the 500mb low. The NAM is notably colder than other models
Tuesday night and, as a result, develops a light rain/snow mix for
northwestern portions of the area during this period. Given that the
NAM is alone in this solution and impacts would be very minor,
snow won`t be included in this forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Rain may linger into Wednesday morning before the wave pushes south
of the area and a surface ridge moves through the area during the
afternoon. Temperatures will rebound as skies gradually clear, but
will likely "only" reach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees...which
is still warmer than most of April has been so far.

On Thursday, another quicker-moving wave and cold front will push
through the area, bringing chance for light rain to portions
of the area along with another round of gusty northwest winds.

After this system departs, we will have a period of quieter and
drier weather for Friday and Saturday as a ridge centers itself over
the Rockies. Highs are expected to be around 70 degrees on Saturday.

Model agreement really starts to break down Saturday night into
Sunday. The GFS brings a weak wave and some rain through
the area, but the ECMWF doesn`t bring anything through until Monday.
Nevertheless, it appears that temperatures will likely be at or
above normal through this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Tuesday)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Light and variable winds become southeasterly later this morning,
but will remain at or below 10kts before becoming light and
variable again this evening.

Some cumulus development expected this afternoon in the
5000-6000ft range.

Cloud cover increases again late tonight ahead of the next system
approaching the area.

Cold front and rain chances move into the area on Tuesday...just
outside this TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels


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