Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 202312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
612 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The short term concerns are similar to the last forecasters
concerns. First off, how quick will the clouds clear off. They
have stuck around much of the day for half of the area. Do think
these will clear off later this afternoon/evening based on high-
res guidance and trends. The second concern is fog. With the
moisture we had and the light winds and cool temperatures, think
fog will be a concern overnight and into the morning hours. Have
included some areas of widespread fog in the forecast.

Tomorrow should be warmer than today...with mostly clear skies and
southerly return flow. Highs are currently expected in the 50s and
low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Thursday looks to be even nicer than Wednesday as upper level
ridging builds into the Central Plains. Temperatures on Thursday
are expected in the 60s and low 70s across the area.

The upper ridge axis moves across early Friday as the next upper
disturbance approaches from the west. Ahead of this system, warm
moist advection will bring a chance for precipitation Friday
afternoon. There could be a chance for some showers and
thunderstorms, although at this time, do not expect these to be
strong or severe.

The upper disturbance will pass overhead late Friday into early
Saturday pulling the surface low eastward with it. This will be
the period for the best chance for precip. The surface low looks
to track across northern Kansas, and thus much of southern
Nebraska has a chance for precip. There will be a brief lull
Saturday afternoon before the next disturbance approaches. There
will be another chance for precip, including some snow for
Sunday into the first of the next work week. Because there are
some discrepancies among the guidance, confidence is not high on
the details of timing and location.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Small area of showers clipping western portions of the CWA late
this afternoon/early evening look to briefly affect the KEAR
terminal, put in a tempo group of -SHRA and MVFR conditions based
on obs from upstream at KLXN. Also could have some gusty winds
accompany those showers. At this point think this activity will
stay west of the KGRI terminal, but will be watching it closely.
Otherwise, next concern is the potential for fog late tonight,
thanks to light/variable winds and recent moisture. Models aren`t
in the best of agreement of any fog even developing at this point,
decided to go with MVFR visbility and see how things evolve.
Outside of this fog potential, VFR conditions are expected, with
winds becoming more southerly during the day tomorrow.




SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
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