Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 220534
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

The area of surface high pressure has shifted southeast of the
forecast area, and we`ve begun to see southerly winds increase
behind it. Remnant low to mid-level moisture has allowed for some
fair-weather cumulus to develop which should dissipate this
evening.

A chance for thunderstorms continues tonight in association with
a low-level jet that is forecast to set up in the area. There
still are some substantial differences between models on the
location of this feature, though. The model consensus is that the
best convergence and threat for thunderstorms will be along our
northern and eastern counties, but I also included some slight
PoPs further south as the NAM and HRRR try to bring some weakening
convection into our western counties late this evening. All that
being said, I expect that the large majority of the area will stay
completely dry overnight.

This week`s warmup gets underway on Tuesday as a large upper low
over the southwest CONUS puts us into consistent south to
southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft. There is another
chance for thunderstorms Tuesday evening through the overnight,
but like tonight, considerable difference remain on placement of
the LLJ and resulting convection. At this time, most of the models
tend to favor areas to the north of us for any thunderstorm
development.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Off and on thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday through Friday
as the upper low slowly lifts out of the Southwest. Most of the
time will be dry, but we really can`t rule out thunderstorms on
any given day. Highs Tuesday through Friday are expected to range
from the mid 80s to low 90s each day.

We will see a pattern shift to more northwest flow and ridging
into Saturday, which should lead to mostly dry Memorial Day
weekend. That said, this forecast does now include a slight chance
for showers and storms on Sunday as the next upper low tracks a
little faster across the Rockies. Even so, the overwhelming
majority of Memorial Day weekend looks dry and pleasant with highs
in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

VFR conditions forecast though the period. Winds will pickup in
the afternoon with gusts to the upper teens to the low 20s. Also
brought in some afternoon cumulus clouds which should dissipate
after sunset. LLWS is very marginal for EAR so left it out of the
TAF, but tomorrow night it looks more robust as the LLJ looks to
be setting up over our western forecast area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda



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