Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 201831
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
131 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Today keeps looking better and better with the rain likely holding
off until tonight for most areas from Grand Island and Hastings
eastward. Further west we could see some rain develop, but the
chances are rather small prior to noon and confined to our
westerly most counties. The rain chances will gradually increase
through the day for areas west of Hwy 281. However, in all
likelihood the rain will probably hold off until late afternoon
and then just impact our western most areas (Lexington, Elwood,
Beaver City, Logan KS. Although we expect a lot of clouds, the
southeasterly flow should push temperatures back into at least the
50s most areas, to around 60 southeast.

The strong closed upper level low will slowly track east into the
high plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas tonight. This
will allow the rain chances to spread east across the entire area
especially after midnight. The best rain chances and likely the
higher amounts will be across our western zones. Eastern zones
will probably see at least a little rain, but it might only be a
couple of hundredths.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Late Friday night into Saturday morning will be the best chance
of rain showers as the upper low tracks across the plains to our
south. Rain chances will steadily decrease Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. We are not expecting heavy rain amounts with
eastern zones maybe staying under 0.10 while western zones could
see closer to 0.50, but a steady light rain is possible at times.
Temperatures will be cooler due to the clouds and rain with
upper 40s likely for most areas, maybe 50 if we are lucky on
Saturday.

Sunday and Monday...We will be between storm systems and should
experience some sunshine and a nice warm up with upper 50s Sunday
to lower 60s Monday. Normal highs are now in the mid 60s. We might
at least get close to that on Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday...The next cold front comes through and
brings a quick shot of rain showers, but highs on Tuesday only
fall back into the 50s.

Wednesday into Thursday...We expect another break between storm
systems and with upper level ridging we could get back to around
60 on Wednesday and some areas could be in the 70s by Thursday.

Night time lows could be frosty at times through the extended
period, but mainly mid to upper 30s with no hard freezing 20
something temperatures. Perhaps spring has finally arrived.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Significant wx: Breezy southeast winds this aftn. Showers with
MVFR ceilings tonight with eventually IFR ceilings late
tonight/early Sat AM.

Rest of today: VFR. Dry conditions, breezy southeast wind with
gusts up to 23kt and thick overcast around 10K feet expected
through late afternoon.

Tonight: VFR/MVFR. Showers will gradually incr from west to east
this evening and overnight, reaching EAR by 03Z and GRI by around
06Z. Winds will decr from this aftn but remain out of the east.
The main issue will be ceilings beginning to fall as moisture
gradually incr in the low levels.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR. Areas of lt rn showers will continue off and
on through the morning. MOS guidance is most aggressive with
lowering ceilings Sat AM (even to LIFR at EAR) whereas raw
guidance from hi-res models is a bit more resevered. Think IFR
ceilings are a good possibility given continued saturation of low
levels on easterly upslope winds, but not ready to go as low as
MOS guidance would suggest. This is most uncertain aspect of
current forecast with future adjustments likely. Generally
improving conditions expected just beyond this TAF cycle.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Thies


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