Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 231114
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
614 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Warm air has arrived in southwest flow aloft across the Central
Plains while an closed upper low pressure system lifts through the
northern Rockies today. Southerly low level flow will be on the
increase in a tightening pressure gradient as surface low pressure
deepens along the high plains, with south wind speeds ramping up to
15-25 mph with gusts around 30 mph. Temperatures will be very
similar to yesterday with highs well into the 80s to around 90
degrees.

Thunderstorm chances today are not overly favorable and the SPC
marginal severe weather risk has shifted west, just clipping our
western zones. The instability axis is primarily oriented across
western Neb/KS and west of Hwy 281 in our area. Short term models
suggest the potential for a storm or two to develop west of Hwy
281 mid/to late afternoon or early evening, then convection
focuses to our west along the high plains in the vicinity of the
surface low while a shortwave lifts out of the Rockies. The
western convection may edge towards our western zones late
tonight, with an overall expected weakening trend.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

On Thursday, thunderstorm chances are trending up for the
evening/night while the upper waves lifts to the Northern Plains
and the attendant trough crosses the Central Plains. The dry line
mixing eastward, focusing showers and thunderstorms and bringing
the potential for strong/severe storms due to an unstable
atmosphere with CAPES around 2500 j/kg and effective shear near
30kts. Hail/wind will be the primary storm hazards.

The convection looks to wind down by Friday with only minimal
chances for storms in northwest flow before upper ridging builds
onto the plains Memorial Day weekend with dry/hot weather expected
with highs in the low 90s. Thunderstorm chances return Sunday night
as the ridge axis migrates east and flow transitions southwest again
as another upstream upper low reaches the central Rockies.
Memorial Day could see some showers/storms around, but the better
precip chances look to hold off til Monday night or Tuesday as the
western system begins to fill and lift out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

VFR is forecast through the period. Added some LLWS for EAR
tonight as the LLJ looks to be stronger out west. Low probs for
TS this afternoon and evening so did not put a mention in the TAFS
at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Beda


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