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000
FXUS65 KABQ 201738 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Patchy fog and a few rain showers are possible across eastern NM
through the mid-morning today and again tonight and early tomorrow
morning. Temperatures today will generally be below average across
the east and above average across the west. This east/west divide
continues Sunday, but warmer the warmer and drier airmass will
eventually encompasses the entire state by Monday. Southwest winds
trend stronger mid to late next week, increasing fire weather
concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Weak upper level short wave on approach from the west early this
morning. The flow aloft associated with this trough will be forced
up and over a relatively moist and cool easterly low level flow to
result in widespread upslope stratus over eastern NM along with
isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly from the central mountain
chain eastward during the afternoon. High resolution models keep a
1030 mb surface high centered over far southwest NE through the day,
resulting in consistent easterly flow over east-central NM for much
if not all of today and tonight. By Sunday morning, the upper trough
is east of NM and the surface high over southwest NE is progged to
shift southward over OK with a return southeasterly low level flow
setting up over eastern NM. High temperatures in eastern NM warm on
Sunday as a result, but remain below seasonal averages for mid to
late April. Surface high shifts southward to the TX panhandle
Sunday, and with very dry northwest flow aloft, the drier air aloft
eventually wins out. Elsewhere, dry and breezy weather will prevail
today with warmer temperatures forecast areawide for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Weak zonal flow aloft will allow moisture to continue to slosh back
and forth across eastern NM early next week. Ensemble guidance is in
good agreement that a ridge will amplify as it traverses the
southern Rockies and moves into The Great Plains. Rising heights
will help temps rise a few more degrees with 90s likely in Chaves
county and mid-80s along the Rio Grande Valley. Tuesday should be
the warmest day of the week because a trough exiting into the High
Plains will send another backdoor cold front into the state sometime
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Depending on the timing of the
front, some gusty east winds are possible early Wednesday morning
through the gaps of the central mountain chain. Higher dewpoints
will keep temps down a few degrees, but precipitation is unlikely
given the absence of any lift.

The synoptic pattern may begin to change around the middle of next
week with troughing developing over the Western US. GEFS members are
quicker to show this development while EPS members are a bit slower
to kick the ridge off to the east. Initially, some storms are
possible in eastern NM with a grazing shortwave Wednesday or
Thursday, but increased westerly flow will eventually push the dry
line eastward into Texas, thereby increasing fire weather concerns.
Some PoPs have been introduced across the northern high terrain late
next week, but this is dependent on the more progressive pattern
sending a stronger Low into the southern Rockies. If this were to
materialize, the showers would likely be accompanied by widespread
strong southwest to west winds and high fire danger.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Areas of MVFR cigs prevail across eastern NM, but will continue to
improve this afternoon to VFR between 20-22Z. The front and light
easterly upslope flow will hold on across eastern NM into Sunday,
bringing deteriorating conditions overnight with widespread MVFR
conditions and areas of IFR. MVFR cigs will also likely make a run
at KSAF early Sunday morning, similar to the previous two
mornings. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to
persist. A round of showers will impact north central NM today,
but will be high-based and aren`t forecast to impact TAF sites. A
gusty east canyon wind is forecast to redevelop at KABQ this
evening, but will be less than the previous two nights and speeds
aren`t forecast to reach Airport Weather Warning threshold.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A relatively moist airmass will remain across eastern NM today while
dry air wins out in western and central areas by afternoon. Critical
fire weather conditions are not forecast to return until Monday when
spotty near critical conditions develop in the east central plains.
Breezy and warmer weather is expected Tuesday with more spotty
elevated to near critical conditions developing in western and
central portions of NM during the afternoon. This trend continues
into Wednesday with slightly stronger winds leading to near critical
condtions for much of the western and central portions of the
forecast area. Thursday continues to look like the most active fire
weather day of the next week with critical conditions likely for
much of central and northern NM below snowpack. Friday continues to
look breezy to windy with at least localized critical conditons to
continue, especially south of I-40.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  75  43  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  72  33  74  33 /  20   5   5   0
Cuba............................  68  36  70  40 /  20   5   5   0
Gallup..........................  74  37  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  70  39  71  41 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................  74  35  74  37 /   5   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  72  40  73  42 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  71  42  69  46 /  10   5   5   0
Datil...........................  69  41  70  43 /   5   0   5   0
Reserve.........................  77  38  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  82  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  64  33  67  34 /  40  20  20   0
Los Alamos......................  64  40  67  44 /  30  20  10   0
Pecos...........................  58  35  66  40 /  20  20  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  61  41  63  44 /  50  40  20   0
Red River.......................  56  29  59  32 /  60  50  30   0
Angel Fire......................  57  24  60  29 /  50  40  20   0
Taos............................  65  31  69  34 /  40  20  10   0
Mora............................  58  33  64  36 /  30  20  10   0
Espanola........................  71  38  75  42 /  30  10   5   0
Santa Fe........................  63  39  69  43 /  20  20  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  66  38  73  42 /  20  10   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  45  73  50 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  43  74  49 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  73  40  76  48 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  72  42  75  49 /  10   5   0   0
Belen...........................  76  42  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  73  42  76  47 /  10   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  75  40  77  47 /  10   5   0   0
Corrales........................  74  42  76  48 /  10   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  76  42  77  48 /  10   5   0   0
Placitas........................  69  42  72  47 /  10   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  73  43  75  47 /  10   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  80  44  79  50 /  10   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  39  66  45 /  10   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  64  36  69  45 /  10  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  61  35  70  39 /  10  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  60  33  70  34 /  10   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  52  33  64  37 /   5  10   0   0
Mountainair.....................  62  35  70  42 /  10   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  64  35  69  40 /  10   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  70  43  73  43 /  20   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  58  38  62  40 /  40  20   5   0
Capulin.........................  48  30  58  34 /  20  40   5   0
Raton...........................  54  32  62  32 /  30  40   5   0
Springer........................  53  34  62  33 /  20  20   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  51  34  62  37 /  10  10   5   0
Clayton.........................  49  33  60  40 /  20  40   0   0
Roy.............................  48  35  58  37 /  20  20   5   0
Conchas.........................  53  39  64  40 /  30  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  51  38  60  37 /  10   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  50  37  61  40 /  40  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  50  38  59  39 /  70  20   0   0
Portales........................  51  38  60  38 /  70  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  51  39  61  40 /  40  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  59  46  65  45 /  40  20   0   0
Picacho.........................  54  40  60  38 /  20  10   0   0
Elk.............................  57  38  62  37 /  30   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11