644
FXUS65 KABQ 290535 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1135 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening mainly north of a line from Grants to Clovis, except for
numerous cells around Raton and Capulin. The recent warming trend
will continue through mid week with high temperatures mostly in
the 70s and 80s at lower elevations starting Monday, and highs
peaking around 3 to 13 degrees above 1991 to 2020 averages on
Wednesday. Southwest winds will also become breezy to windy on
Wednesday with very low humidities and widespread fire weather
concerns. Temperatures will cool closer to 30-year averages as
winds shift out of the northwest and remain breezy on Thursday,
when a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast plains near the Colorado
border. The potential exists for strong to severe thunderstorms
east of the central mountain chain on Saturday with gusty
sprinkles as far west the continental divide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Yesterdays upper low has lifted into NE/SD with a lagging shortwave
trough having dropped into AZ and soon to be into NM. While
temperatures aloft have warmed a couple degrees, there is still a
deep thermal trough over the Rockies and high plains with anomalous
readings of -16 to -18 C over much of NM. This is allowing the lower
half of the troposphere to destabilize, and convective showers and a
few thunderstorms should continue taking shape through early
evening. While areas near the NM-CO border will remain the favored
area for rainfall, it should also be noted that a meso-high is being
modeled by CAMs and higher resolution synoptic models over the far
northeast highlands which could produce a dry outflow boundary over
adjacent northeastern zones through the late evening. As the sun
sets, stability will be restored and a clearing trend should follow
as the shortwave pushes eastward into TX. Overnight temperatures
will not be as chilly as this mornings readings. A mostly clear,
warmer and moderately breezy day is then in store for the remainder
of the day Monday as dry zonal flow aloft prevails with a weak lee-
side surface low developing just east of the Sangre de Cristos.
Monday night also looks to remain mostly void of moisture for any
clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Fair weather with warming temperatures and some gusty afternoon
winds Tuesday under zonal flow aloft. The warming trend will
continue Wednesday, and breezy to windy conditions will develop
with fire weather concerns as an upper level trough crossing the
northern and central Rockies strengthens the flow aloft over NM.
The strongest winds on Wednesday afternoon may reach 50 mph across
northeast areas, where a strong lee trough will develop south of a
~988 mb surface low in southeast CO. The upper trough is forecast
to drive a gusty Pacific cold front southeastward through the
forecast area on Thursday, then a backdoor cold front southward
through the eastern plains Thursday afternoon and night, with
cooling temperatures areawide. After high temperatures around
3-13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages on Wednesday, readings will
fall around 3-13 degrees with continued breezy conditions on
Thursday. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms along and
east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near the CO border Thursday
afternoon and evening, and perhaps again over the Sangres on
Friday. Models now indicate the backdoor cold front will be too
shallow to push into the central valley with a gusty east wind
Thursday night, and a little too dry to trigger showers and storms
across the bulk of the eastern plains on Friday. However, they do
bring a moist southeasterly low-level return flow into the
forecast area Friday afternoon through Saturday. This may set the
stage for a potential severe weather outbreak across eastern NM
Saturday afternoon, depending on the progress a west coast low
pressure system makes moving inland. With enough progress, the
storm system will be able to strengthen the vertical wind shear
and enhance severe thunderstorm chances over eastern NM. At this
time, there is also some uncertainty about how for into central NM
the moist return flow will reach Saturday. Usually this time of
year moisture that reaches the central valley will tend to shift
eastward with afternoon atmospheric mixing leading to only
sprinkles and dry microbursts with a risk of locally damaging
winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Mid level clouds across eastern NM will fully dissipate by around
29/09Z. VFR and SKC will prevail for the rest of the TAF period.
Light southwest to west winds develop in the afternoon. Winds will
be a bit breezy at times across the central and northeast
highlands between KCQC and KLVS through the early evening due to
being in the vicinity of a weak surface lee trough. Light winds
areawide after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN MID WEEK...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the early
evening, mainly over north central and very far northeastern NM
where there will be fewer recipients of soaking rainfall. A few
cloud-to-ground lightning strikes will remain a possibility in these
areas, and some gusty outflow winds will also accompany showers and
storms while otherwise moderately breezy conditions settle through
the evening. Breezy conditions will repeat themselves on Monday and
Tuesday while a warming and drying (lower humidity) trend become
more pronounced. With breezes generally limited to a 15 to 25 mph
range, no critical concerns are foreseen for the final couple of
days of April. However, an upstream upper level trough will move
just east of the Great Basin (into ID/UT), bringing stronger
southwest winds to NM. The northeast highlands and plains appear to
observe the strongest winds on Wednesday where higher chances for
critical conditions will be expected with very low humidity already
in place, but the middle to lower Rio Grande valley will also be
another secondary area of concern. There is still some forecast
model uncertainty with the track and timing of the disturbance
aloft, but it should at least overtake CO by Thursday along with an
associated front. While this could lead to cooler temperatures on
Thursday, the humidity does not appear to rise much, nor is there
much precipitation advertised, so this will likely keep a critical
fire threat going into Thursday. Winds would then likely relax more
into Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  37  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  28  67  33  72 /  20   0   0   0
Cuba............................  33  68  38  71 /  20   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  29  71  34  73 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  30  67  34  70 /  10   0   0   0
Grants..........................  30  71  34  75 /  20   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  32  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  39  73  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
Datil...........................  34  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  31  75  34  78 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  42  78  46  82 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  27  61  30  66 /  30   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  40  67  46  71 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  36  68  41  71 /  20   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  34  63  40  67 /  40   0   0   0
Red River.......................  26  58  28  64 /  50   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  21  61  20  65 /  40   0   0   0
Taos............................  29  68  33  72 /  30   0   0   0
Mora............................  33  67  38  71 /  30   0   0   0
Espanola........................  37  73  42  79 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  38  69  43  73 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  36  73  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  43  74  49  79 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  76  50  80 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  37  78  42  83 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  43  76  48  80 /  10   0   0   0
Belen...........................  39  79  44  83 /  10   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  41  76  47  81 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  37  78  42  83 /  10   0   0   0
Corrales........................  41  77  47  82 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  38  78  43  83 /  10   0   0   0
Placitas........................  41  73  46  76 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  43  76  48  80 /  10   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  45  80  49  85 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  39  67  45  70 /  10   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  40  70  45  74 /  10   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  37  70  41  75 /  10   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  33  72  36  76 /  10   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  36  68  40  72 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  37  70  43  75 /  10   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  39  71  43  75 /  10   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  45  74  50  80 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  37  70  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  34  69  38  74 /  70   0   0   0
Raton...........................  34  72  37  77 /  60   0   0   0
Springer........................  35  74  38  78 /  40   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  36  71  41  75 /  20   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  41  75  48  83 /  30   0   0   0
Roy.............................  39  73  45  79 /  40   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  43  81  47  85 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  42  78  45  82 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  43  81  48  87 /  20   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  46  81  50  87 /  20   0   0   0
Portales........................  46  82  49  88 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  45  82  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  50  86  53  93 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  47  79  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  44  77  48  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...71