Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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597 FXUS61 KAKQ 052001 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 401 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... Late this aftn, a warm front was lifting back north across the region. Latest radar showed sctd showers and isolated tstms moving ENE through wrn/cntrl portions of the CWA. Heavier showers were occurring over scntrl VA into NE NC. Temps were ranging from the mid to upper 60s over the Piedmont and portions of the Lower MD and VA ern shore, and ranging through the 70s elsewhere. This shortwave energy within the SW flow aloft helping to produce the pcpn, will shift ewrd this evening and off the coast by early Mon morning. Thus, the showers/storms will continue ENE through this evening, and should be offshore by early Mon morning. Heavier showers will dissipate by late this evening. Remaining mild tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... Key messages: - Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain Monday through Wednesday - A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid conditions Mon and Tue mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will persist through at least Thu. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a mainly zonal flow aloft plus a lee trough, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late evening. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Mon, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. HREF mean CAPE shows values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore, severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two. Lows Mon night in the lower to mid 60s. Increasingly warmer and humid for Tue and Wed, with chances for mainly aftn/evening showers and tstms. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Wed. At this time, there will be the potential for strong or severe storms Wed and Thu. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... An unsettled, summertime continues through the rest of the week. A ridge aloft starts to break down Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed-Thurs. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Sunday... A warm front will push N of the area by this evening. However, the warm front combined with shortwave energy/moisture/lift, will produce sctd showers and tstms into tonight. So, expect VFR to MVFR conditions with the pcpn into tonight. Then, expect MVFR or IFR CIGs to return to the TAF sites later tonight into Mon morning, due to lingering low level moisture behind the exiting pcpn. Winds will be SE-S this aftn into Mon morning, then become SW by later Mon morning. through the period and gusty at the coast this afternoon. Expect mainly VFR or MVFR conditions for Mon aftn, along with the return chance of showers or tstms. Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening. && .MARINE... As of 325 PM EDT Sunday... 1028mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia this aftn, with a warm front and surface trough from central VA into central NC. The wind is SSE 15kt with gusts up to 20kt and seas are 3-4ft, with waves in the Ches. Bay approximately 2-3ft. The warm front will continue to lift back N tonight with the wind becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt, and then to the SSW by Monday. The wind will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt through much the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub-SCA. The wind may increase a bit Thursday into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger cold front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 325 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the northern Neck and Bay-side of the Maryland Eastern Shore through late tonight/early Monday for minor flooding. Ebb tides have been stronger than flood tides over the past 24 hours, and this has led to a slight decrease in tidal anomalies over the Bay and tidal rivers, with departures mainly ~1.25ft above astronomical. Given that the wind has become SSE tidal anomalies are expected to increase some during high tide tonight/early Monday morning, and this will also occur with the higher astronomical tide. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect to cover this period for the Northern Neck and Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore. Water levels are expected to drop off by ~0.5 ft later Monday as the wind shifts to the SW and water flushes out of the mouth of the Bay. Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides late Monday night/early Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...AM/TMG LONG TERM...AM/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJZ/LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ