National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KALY 140537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
137 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds diminish tonight with clouds partially clearing
leading to chilly temperatures. Then, a quick moving disturbance
tomorrow leads to another round of showers and possible
stronger thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, mainly south of
Interstate 90. Drier and warmer weather returns Monday and
Tuesday before unsettled weather returns Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:35 AM EDT...Upper trough continues to pull
away to our east. The back edge of the deeper moisture and the
cloud shield continues to track eastwards into western New
England, with clearing for western and southern portions of our
forecast area. Reduced cloud cover through the next several
hours, especially west of I-87, to better align with current
satellite trends. Despite the clearing, breezy conditions have
kept temperatures elevated so far tonight, and so temps were
bumped up a degree or two with this update. Also, wind advisory
was allowed to expire as gusts are now below advisory criteria.
A few lingering light rain/snow showers remain over the southern
Greens, but these should dissipate within the next couple
hours. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with more
details below...

.Previous...Lingering showers in the southern Greens will
diminish by 06 UTC. Temperatures will drop in response to the
clearing skies but with winds staying breezy overnight,
sustained boundary layer mixing will likely prevent temperatures
from cooling towards their respective dew points.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fast moving clipper system will push across the region from
the Great Lakes on Sunday with the potential for some strong to
severe thunderstorms. This feature will send a warm front
across the region in the morning where some isentropic lift will
result in some rain showers. How far north this warm front
pushes remains uncertain and this will determine which regions
will be within the system`s warm sector and have the better
potential for thunderstorms. While steep mid-level lapse rates
will be in place (>7C/km), low-level lapse rates look poor. This
may be as a result of lingering cloud cover across the region.
Instability looks low as well with generally less than 100 J/kg
MLCAPE and up to 500 J/kg MUCAPE (elevated). However, a strong
low-level jet on the order of 45 to 60 kt should enable some
organized convection to develop in the warm sector. The flow
will be mainly parallel to the front (southwest to northeast)
and this should allow any individual pieces of convection to
quickly morph into a line (QLCS). As a result, damaging winds
look to be the primary threat. Forecast soundings also suggest
some inverted-v profiles may be in place which could assist in
downburst potential. Best hail or tornado potential looks to
remain to our south and west. The Storm Prediction has placed
most of our region in a Marginal or Slight risk for severe
weather with an Enhanced risk to our south and west. Highs,
once again, will depend on the position of the warm front but
could reach the 60s across southern areas and the 50s
elsewhere. Areas north of the warm front may remain in the 40s.

Any showers and thunderstorms will push off to the south and
east Sunday night as the system departs the region. High
pressure will return and provide drier weather for early next
week. There could be some wrap around rain showers/sprinkles
across the Adirondacks on Monday. Otherwise, temperatures will
moderate back to above normal values by Tuesday along with the
return of sunshine and a west to northwesterly breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A dry start to the extended forecast period will give way to an
unsettled pattern once again for the end of next week as a
series of disturbances brings additional rounds of precipitation
to the region...

A very narrow region of upper-level ridging met with high
pressure at the surface will briefly encompass the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday ensuring dry conditions potentially
through Wednesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will
fall into the 30s and 40s while highs on Wednesday will moderate
into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Some timing discrepancies exist
surrounding the first batch of rain showers to grace the region
throughout the long term period, but general consensus points to
a Wednesday evening/Wednesday night timeframe. These
preliminary showers come in advance of a warm front extending
southeastward from a low pressure system tracking into the
western Great Lakes. Rain will continue through Thursday as the
warm front tracks through the region. A brief break in shower
activity looks to come Thursday night into Friday morning as
some mid-level dry air is entrained into the region ahead of the
system`s cold front. However, an additional batch of showers is
expected with the progression of the cold front Friday as flow
backs to the southwest and moisture is once again advected into
the region. Generally, showers look to be light in magnitude
with less than an inch of QPF expected from Wednesday through
Friday. Conditions should generally dry out beginning Saturday
outside of a stray, high-elevation shower or two as high
pressure begins to slowly build in from the west and the
aforementioned system tracks out of reach.

Low temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the 40s to near
50. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be fairly
similar with primarily 50s expected across the area in addition
to pockets of upper 40s above 1500 ft and low 60s in the Mid-
Hudson Valley. Low temperatures Thursday will be similar to
Wednesday night with lows Friday night falling into the 30s with
pockets of low 40s in the Mid- Hudson Valley. Saturday, highs
cool off a bit with the passage of the front. Temperatures will
be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fast moving low pressure system will track across the region this
afternoon, then move east of the region tonight.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through around 15Z/Sun, although
can not completely rule out some patchy ground fog forming at KGFL
between 08Z-11Z/Sun resulting in MVFR/IFR Vsbys.

Rain showers will then develop between 15Z-18Z/Sun at KGFL, KALB and
KPSF associated with approaching low pressure system and warm front.
There could be intermittent MVFR Cigs/Vsbys developing within any
heavier rain showers, especially later this afternoon. There also
could be a few rumbles of thunder at KALB and KPSF later this
afternoon, however overall chances are too low to mention in current
TAFs.

At KPOU, most of the showers should remain to the north/east until
late afternoon. As a cold front moves southward, there is a chance
of showers and thunderstorms between roughly 22Z/Sun and 02Z/Mon.
Strong wind gusts could accompany any thunderstorms.

Showers should taper off after 02Z/Sun, however MVFR Cigs may linger
well into Sunday night, with pockets of IFR Cigs possible,
especially at KPSF.

West to northwest winds 8-14 KT with some gusts of 25-30 KT will
diminish to 5-10 KT after 08Z/Sun. Winds will then back into the
southwest at 5-10 KT Sunday morning, then become light/variable at
KGFL and KALB this afternoon, while remaining south to southwest and
increasing to 10-15 KT with some gusts up to 25 KT at KPOU and KPSF.
Winds will then become west to northwest at 5-10 KT Sunday evening.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any
thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main/Rathbun/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Main/Rathbun/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...KL