National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KAMA 171920
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
220 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A brief ridge is passing across the southern plains today
continuing the dry and fair weather. Under this ridge the winds
are on the lighter side with southwesterly gusts in the 20s mph.
The temperatures are on the warm side with highs in the 80s across
the panhandles. These elevated highs wont last as Thursday will
see the ridge depart and a strong cold front passing across the
panhandles. This front look to pass through the panhandles
starting in the north during early morning hours before it departs
south of the panhandles by the late morning hours. This front will
bring a quick wind shift to the north and cause winds to become
breezy and gusty. This will see the sustained winds mainly in the
20s mph and gusts in the 30s to 40s mph. These winds will push in
much cooler air across the panhandles leading to a sharp decrease
in the temperatures. This will see the highs drop roughly 15 to 25
degrees with 50s to 60s being common across the panhandles for
Thursday. This front looks to be fairly dry and should lead to
only clouds during the morning hours before this dissipate by the
afternoon. What this front should bring is some blowing dust
carried along those gusty winds.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cooler temperatures are likely late this week through this weekend
for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Highs are forecast to be in
the 40s to mid 60s from Friday through Sunday. Early next week
temperatures will rebound to near or above average. Rain chances
return to the region this weekend where some locations may receive
beneficial rainfall once again.

The cooler airmass will remain in place over the Panhandles Friday
through Sunday. For Friday, southwest surface winds will usher in
slightly warmer air for portions of the west so temperatures may
be a few degrees warmer for some on Friday when compared to
Thursday. The next upper level disturbance is forecast to move
across the Southern High Plains starting Friday night and
continuing through Sunday morning. Ample H700 theta-e advection
out ahead of the leading edge of the wave should provide enough
moisture for precipitation to develop once the better lift moves
over the area. Most of the precipitation should be rain showers,
but model guidance does have a few hundred joules of CAPE so
isolated thunderstorms are certainly possible. Model spread in the
higher area of rainfall totals continues to be quite high, but in
general the southern TX Panhandle is the favored area for rain
with this event. The 17/13z NBM gives an area from interstate 40
and further south a 60 to 90 percent chance at receiving 0.25
inches of rainfall. Will continue to monitor trends as we get
closer to this weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be the
coolest of this forecast period, with highs struggling to reach 50
for most, if not all locations due to persistent cloud cover and
rain showers. The system will exit off to the east early on Sunday
and cloud cover will decrease during the daytime. Highs should
generally return to the upper 50s to upper 60s.

For early next week, temperatures should increase back to near or
above average with broad ridging settling in across the central
and western CONUS. Weak waves embedded in the upper level flow may
move across the area during the early parts of next week which may
be enough to trigger some showers and/or storms if there is
sufficient moisture throughout the column.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions will persist at all terminals and across the
panhandles until the arrival of a cold front Thursday morning.
Likewise the winds will be on the weak side from the SW to WSW
until the passage of the cold front. Once the cold front passes
winds will quickly shift to the N and become breezy and gusty with
gusts in the 30s kt. This will push in a low cloud deck that will
cause MVFR conditions during the morning hours. The MVFR
conditions will persist until the later morning hours where it
will dissipate in the SW to NE fashion being entirely done no
later than the afternoon. While all terminals will see the winds
KDHT and KGUY are the station that have a very high chance of
seeing the MVFR cloud decks. KAMA has a moderately low chance of
seeing the MVFR cloud decks thus this was not carried in the TAF
currently.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                49  65  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  45  63  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              41  58  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  50  68  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              47  67  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  48  67  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               52  68  43  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 42  62  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  43  61  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                48  69  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                49  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   49  66  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                51  68  42  63 /   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              51  70  43  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...98