611
FXUS63 KAPX 131917
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
317 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms along M-72 and south into this
  evening.

- Patchy frost possible Tue night and Wed night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Northern stream shortwave troughing will continue to slide from
Ontario/far northern Great Lakes over Quebec Tuesday. Meanwhile, a
stronger southern stream wave will work from the southern Great
Plains across the lower Mississippi Valley/southeast CONUS. A
stalled front draped across mid-Michigan will slowly sag south
tonight into Tuesday as a broad cyclone supported by aforementioned
southern stream troughing treks across the mid-Mississippi Valley
into Tuesday evening. Surface high pressure will build near Hudson
Bay through the period, nosing down into the Great Lakes by Tuesday.

Forecast Details:

Scattered showers/storms along M-72 and south into this evening --
As the previously mentioned front slowly works further south across
the middle of the state, additional scattered showers and storms are
expected along and south of the M-72 corridor into this evening.
Brief heavy downpours, lightning, gusty winds, and potential for
small hail are the primary concerns with any storms given meager
instability and weak deep-layer wind shear in place. The best chance
for any strong storm will be close to Saginaw Bay. Severe storms are
not expected. Otherwise, sunny skies and quiet weather are in store
for northern Michigan Tuesday as high pressure builds in.
Northeasterly low-level flow will usher in some slightly cooler
temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s for most interior
areas. Cooler highs near 60 are anticipated near the lakeshores.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Pattern/synopsis: A nearly zonal flow aloft with weak surface high
pressure in place Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Low
amplitude troughing along with weak surface low pressure then move
in later Thursday into at least Friday. Uncertainty over the pattern
evolution after that for the upcoming weekend.

Forecast: Quiet weather in order through at least Thursday morning
from the combination of nearly zonal flow aloft and weak surface
high pressure. This is expected to result in generally warm days and
chilly nights. Could even see some frost, especially in low lying
spots for Tuesday and/or Wednesday nights due to light winds and
mostly clear skies promoting decent radiational cooling conditions.
Shower chances then return at some point late Thursday with
continued shower chances through at least Friday. Pattern evolution
after that is in question with a general zonal flow likely
returning. Extended guidance varies on whether or not short waves
move through this flow over the weekend which will determine the
timing/extent of any shower chances. Wouldn`t cancel any weekend
plans just yet as there is still plenty of time to hopefully discern
how this all plays out over the next few days. High temperatures are
expected to be near seasonal averages through the work week and
possibly a few degrees above this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected across most northern Michigan TAF sites
through the issuance period. The exception may be CIU where
relatively shallow FG/BR may form late tonight/early Tuesday morning
should weak winds materialize. Otherwise, BKN/OVC clouds will
gradually work south of the area tonight, leaving clear/sunny skies
in place for Tuesday. Northwest winds around 5-10 kts this afternoon
will turn to north/north-northeast winds tonight and Tuesday. Shower
chances will continue in the vicinity of MBL into this evening
before tapering off tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...DJC