063
AXNT20 KNHC 020428
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to
05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 02N35W to 00N50W. No
significant convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf and
continues to dominate the basin. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
are across the western half of the basin noted in recent
scatterometer data. Combined seas in this area are 3 to 6 ft. The
high pressure is supporting generally calm to light breezes
across the eastern Gulf, where seas are 1 to 3 ft. A few showers
and thunderstorms are active over the coastal waters off the
Sabine Pass in the northwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will tighten, and fresh to
strong pulsing winds in the western half of the Gulf will develop
later tonight through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail
in the eastern half of the basin. Winds will pulse to strong
speeds nightly near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to
local effects induced by a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trade winds
over the central Caribbean off northeast Colombia and northwest
Venezuela, and fresh winds funneling off the coast of Cabo Beata
on the south coast of Hispaniola. These winds are active between
weak high pressure centered north of the area near Bermuda and
lower pressure over Colombia. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft in this
area. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere with
3 to 5 ft seas, except in the NW Caribbean where seas are 3 ft or
less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over
Hispaniola and the Windward Passage ahead of an upper trough. The
trough will continue to support persistent heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms through the week in this region which may increase
the chance of flash flooding in low lying areas.

For the forecast, the ridge is expected to slide eastward and
weaken on Thu, reducing the areal coverage and limiting these
winds to the SE Caribbean by Thu evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently affecting eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and
adjacent passages will expand in coverage tonight into Thu
supported by a surface trough extending along 78W. The pressure
gradient between this feature and a weak ridge will also support
moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee Cuba, NW Caribbean and the
Windward Passage Thu night into Sat night. Gentle to moderate
trades are expected basin-wide the remainder forecast period,
except for fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure centered near Bermuda dominates the western
Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh E
winds south of the high pressure along the north coast of
Hispaniola and near the entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate
E to SE winds are evident elsewhere south of 25N and west of 55W.
Recent altimeter and buoy data show combined seas of 5 to 7 ft in
this area. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined seas
are noted closer into the ridge, north of 25N and west of 55W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the southern
Bahamas and offshore Hispaniola, ahead of an upper trough
approaching from the west.

A weak cold front is analyzed farther east from 31N42W to 26N50W.
Winds ahead of this front have diminished to moderate speeds. Seas
of 5 to 7 ft continue behind the front. Combined seas of 6 to 8
ft are ahead of the front, north of 28N and west of 35W. Gentle
to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of
35W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas
are noted over the eastern Atlantic south of 20N and east of 30W.
as well as north of 20N and east of east of 25W, to the south of
strong high pressure centered east of the Azores.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure near Bermuda is
expected to slide eastward and weaken on Thu, while a surface
trough develops just N of Hispaniola. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and the trough will support pulsing strong E-SE
winds E of the trough and moderate to fresh NE-E winds W of the
trough. The trough will also amplify the area of showers and tstms
currently affecting the southern Bahamas and the Great Bahama
Bank. The trough is forecast to become a weak low, which will
track NE Fri through Sat, and open back into a trough while
exiting the area Sat afternoon.


$$
Mora