312
FXUS63 KBIS 080612
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
112 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances for rain showers remain in the forecast
  tonight through Wednesday.

- A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected for the
  end of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Shower activity continues to become more widely scattered
overnight, and is mostly confined to areas along and west of
Highway 85. Satellite, radar, and rapid refresh model trends
dictated a decrease in PoPs across central North Dakota for
this update. Otherwise, the late night forecast remains in good
shape.

UPDATE
Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Showers continue to rotate around the low, but coverage
continues to be on a gradual decrease. This was reflected in
previous forecast, and the forecast trend continues to be on
track. Therefore, only minimal changes were needed. In addition,
the wind advisory for far southwest North Dakota was allowed to
expire as winds continue to gradually diminish over that area.

UPDATE
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Deep low now centered to the north and a little west of Bismarck
as of this writing, with rain showers continuing to circulate
around it. Heaviest showers at this time remain over western and
far northern portions of the state, more scattered over central
North Dakota. We did have a period late this afternoon/early
evening where the SPC non-supercell tornado parameter was
elevated over parts of south central and southwest North Dakota,
and we did receive a report and video of a funnel cloud near
Dodge, but it never reached the ground. As the evening continues
on, the threat will continue to diminish given the low level
lapse rates/instability will be on the decrease as we cool. For
early evening update, main change was to adjust shower coverage
with current trends. Also, winds do remain quite gusty over the
far southwest at Bowman and Hettinger, so will let the wind
advisory continue until expiration in a couple hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over south central
North Dakota and north central South Dakota at this time. Low
pressure may meander a bit further north through the remainder
of the day today before retrograding back to the south. Very
windy conditions that are presently occurring in the far
southwest should diminish quickly this evening.

Showers will persist over much of western through central North
Dakota, especially in the west and north. A line of
thunderstorms is trying to develop mainly along and north of
Highway 200. However, with mostly cloudy skies through the day,
instability will remain limited. Therefore, the threat of
severe weather remains low as any hail will likely remain
smaller than quarter size. That said, with relatively cold air
aloft, it wouldn`t be entirely surprising if a few cold air
funnels don`t develop near the low this afternoon, while a
landspout or two isn`t entirely out of the question either.

Low pressure will finally begin to speed up and propagate to
the southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. As a result,
isolated to scattered wrap-around rain showers will persist
through Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. Beyond that,
expect a west to east tilted ridge to traverse over the
Northern Plains Thursday through Thursday night. This will lead
to warmer and mostly dry conditions for the end of the workweek
through early next week. That said, weak shortwave energy
flattening the ridge could provide light rain over the far
eastern forecast area Friday afternoon, although no mentionable
PoPs are present in the forecast at this time. Breezy to windy
conditions are also expected Friday.

By this weekend, temperatures are progged to reach the low to mid
70s across most of the forecast area. These are seasonably warm
highs that are around 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time
of year. Lows look to remain mostly in the 40s, which is near-
average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MVFR/IFR ceilings should prevail across western and north
central North Dakota into Wednesday afternoon. Across south
central North Dakota, VFR ceilings are more likely to prevail,
though some brief period of MVFR ceilings are possible. All
terminals are forecast to improve to VFR conditions by Wednesday
evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers will remain
possible this forecast period, mainly across the west and north
central. The strongest winds for this forecast period will be
across northwest and north central North Dakota, with east to
northeast winds around 15-20 kts. South central North Dakota
(KBIS to KJMS) will see lighter southeast winds overnight,
turning to the east on Wednesday. At KDIK, a westerly wind
overnight should flip to the northeast and increase to near 15
kts on Wednesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Hollan