Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 232357
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
657 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light accumulating snow west into central this evening along
  with increasing easterly winds.

- Winter storm late tonight through Monday, and possibly
  lingering into Monday night in the James River Valley and
  east.

- Greatest impacts will be along and south of Interstate 94.

- Below normal temperatures continue into next week, with a
  general warming trend into the beginning of April.

- Another weather disturbance late next week may bring another
  round of precipitation to the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Light snow continues across much of the forecast area,
especially along and in the vicinity of the I94 corridor.
Composite reflectivity shows the strongest returns in the
general vicinity of Bismarck. However, with cloud tops around 5
kft, most of the precipitation further away from the radar is
simply being overshot. Periodic light snow looks to continue
through the night before more organized light snow sets up in
the west late tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Overall, there is not a lot of changes to the previous forecast.
We have upgraded the watch to a winter storm warning over the
entire watch area, except for Williams county (Williston).
Williams, Divide, Burke, Mountrail and Ward counties have been
upgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. The Winter storm warning
will begin at 1 AM CDT/Midnight MDT for areas south of Lake
Sakakawea and west of the Missouri River. For areas east of the
Missouri River into the James River Valley, the winter storm
warning will begin at 7 AM CDT. In addition, the Winter weather
advisory for portions of the northwest and north central will
also begin at 7 AM CDT/6 AM mdt.

The beginning times have been pushed back from the original
Watch time due to an overall slowing trend in the system. Snow
amounts have not chanced much, but did trend down just a
little. In addition with our messaging beginning this afternoon
the storm total snow accumulations will begin this evening. This
does not include any snow that fell this morning through 7 PM
this evening. These amounts are pretty light, but we do have
some areas south and west of the river getting upwards of an
inch to an inch and a half through this afternoon. This will not
be included on the new storm total snow graphic, so some
reduction in totals will be noticeable, compared to earlier
storm totals.

Without today included we are still expecting a large area of 5
to 10 inches along and south of the Highway 200 corridor. There
will again be a sharp gradient on the north end, which at this
time looks to be between the Highway 200 and Highway 2
corridors. There are some slightly higher amounts northwest
compared to the north central, thus the inclusion of Williston
and Crosby east to Mohall and Minot. Snow amounts here will vary
greatly from north to south.

Some limiting factors for the slightly lower snow amounts, and
possibly lower amounts, especially north, are a slight southern
shift in the overall system. Stronger high pressure over
southern Canada with a more northerly (drier) component to low
level flow beginning Sunday afternoon. Stronger FG forcing and
possibly even convection later Sunday into Sunday night could
draw better moisture over those areas to our south. Finally snow
ratios increase through the event but looking at some forecast
soundings, the most favored deep DGZ depth is reached near the
end of the heavier snowfall rates, especially for areas south
and east.

Even with these limiting factors the NBM 48 hour probability of
6 or more inches, from this evening through early Monday
evening, remains above 80 percent pretty much along and south
of the Highway 200 corridor, and above 90 percent along and
south of the I-94 corridor. Probabilities for 12 or more inches
over the same timeframe have dropped a little over areas west
of the Missouri, with a max of 50-60 percent over Morton, Sioux
and Grant counties, but have increased to over 70 percent in the
southern the James River Valley, including Dickey, Lamoure and
far southern Stutsman counties. In addition to the snow, Winds
will remain strong through a good portion of the forecast area,
with the strongest winds also lining up with the higher snow
totals. The south central into the JRV, and especially the
southern James River Valley may still need and upgrade to a
blizzard warning but with a slight south shift and uncertainty
in wind speeds Sunday night, will stick with the winter storm
warning for now and upgrade if needed Sunday night/Monday. We
will see things settling down Monday night over the south
central and James River valley

Beyond Monday night, a cold upper low level low digs and settles
right over the forecast area. This will keep a cold and cyclonic
upper level flow pattern over the forecast area, but with the
stronger forcing off to our east. Daytime highs on Tuesday will only
forecast to be in the teens and 20s, after a start near or below
zero west to single digits above zero central. If there is a little
lingering snow late Monday night in the southern JRV, it should exit
quickly Tuesday morning. For the most part Tuesday through Thursday
looks to be cold but mainly quiet. Although with a cyclonic upper
flow, a few periods of light snow/flurries here and there can`t be
ruled out. NBM Pops are pretty much nil once snow ends in the JRV
Tuesday, through the day Thursday. We will have to keep an eye on
another system moving across the Rockies late in the work week into
next weekend. It`s still way too early for specifics but the trend
from yesterday is for a more southerly track with the system, and
our local area possibly on the fringes of the system, or possibly
completely north of any significant impacts. We`ll definitely need
to monitor this.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to prevail through
the period at all terminals. Presently, light snow is occurring
across much of western through central North Dakota. Snow should
remain light through most of the night before more organized
moderate to heavy snow begins in western ND late tonight. Winds
will also increase through the day Sunday resulting in further
reduced visibility from both falling and blowing snow.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday
for NDZ001-002-009>011.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Sunday to 7
PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
NDZ021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Telken


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