Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271434
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
934 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures expected today, before warmer
  temperatures arrive through the end of the week.

- A more active pattern is forecast to begin later this week,
  with two rounds of precipitation expected.

- The first round of precipitation from Thursday night through
  Friday is forecast to be mixed, while the second round from
  Saturday night through Sunday is forecast to be mostly snow.
  Currently, both are forecast to have light accumulations.

- Another warming trend may begin next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

High pressure continues to produce sunny skies. A cold March
morning is still on track to warm into the 20s and 30s.


.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Mostly clear skies and calm winds cover western and central North
Dakota this morning, with chilly temperatures in the single digits
below zero across much of the area. Some low stratus lingers around
in the James River Valley as well, helping keep some of those
locations a bit less chilly. Not much was changed with this update,
just blended the current observations into the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

|Currently, surface high pressure is placed across much of the
western half of the state, with a few low clouds across the James
River Valley. Temperatures continue to decrease quite a bit due to
the calm winds and clear skies, with many areas in the west seeing
temperatures below zero already. Early morning lows will dip down a
few more degrees over the next few hours.

As the high pressure slowly slides east through the day today, the
clouds in the James River Valley should begin to move east out of
the area, resulting in mostly clear skies throughout the day today.
Under the presence of the high pressure, daytime highs are expected
to be in the 20s to low 30s, with calm winds. In general, today
should be pretty quiet when it comes to the weather.

An upper level ridge will build in across the area from the west
through Thursday morning, which will help promote a warming trend
heading into the end of the week. High temperatures on Thursday are
currently forecast to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, along with
partly cloudy skies. A surface low tracking along the back side of
the ridge is forecast to tighten the pressure gradient across the
western half of the state, bringing about some breezy winds through
the evening and overnight hours Thursday. As this low tracks south
of North Dakota, another slightly weaker low may deepen across
southern Saskatchewan, quickly tracking east. This system, combined
with a shortwave trough tracking across the Northern Plains, may
bring a very transient wave of precipitation through the area late
Thursday night into Friday. With daytime temperatures on Friday
looking to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, this precipitation will
likely initially be mostly snow, before transitioning to a rain and
snow mix. Due to the transient nature of this system, total
accumulations through Friday appear to be light, with only a medium
chance (roughly 40 to 60%) for an inch of snow across the far north.

Another round of precipitation is possible shortly after this event,
as an upper level cutoff low across southern California makes its
way east through the Rockies through Friday. An associated surface
low is forecast to deepen over the High Plains, tracking east
through the weekend. Due to model uncertainty this far out, the
exact position and track this low takes is still highly variable
between models. As of now, the forecasted track takes the low well
south of North Dakota, with only the southern edge of the state
being clipped with precipitation late Saturday through early Monday.
High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday are currently forecast to
be in the low to mid 30s, with the current expectation being that
most of this precipitation will fall as snow. However, total
accumulation appears to be low with this system as well, with only
the far south seeing a low to medium chance of receiving one inch of
snow. We will continue to monitor this system as we get closer to
the weekend.

Following these two rounds of precipitation, long range guidance
indicates we may see a general warming trend with dry conditions
through the first week of April. Temperatures may increase to
seasonally normal values, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s
possible by next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions and light winds are present across all terminals at
the moment. Light and variable winds for all terminals apart
from KJMS. Winds in the James River Valley are forecast to be
around 15 kts out of the northwest, with gusts up to 25 kts at
times during the daytime hours.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson/Smith


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