257
FXUS64 KBMX 301131
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
631 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2024

The shortwave is moving through the area at this time. We should
see coverage continue to expand through the night and into the
morning hours. A few rumbles of thunder is possible but most of
the activity will be a soaking rainfall The rain should be out of
east Alabama by sunset. There will be a slight change in the air
mass as surface winds become northerly on Wednesday. The humidity
will drop some but afternoon temperatures will warm into the
middle and upper 80s.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2024

Mid-level ridging extending from the Gulf through the eastern
CONUS Thursday will result in above normal temperatures for early
May. A convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV moves in from the west
late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Mid-level moisture
increases but low-levels remain fairly dry, so will only include
low chances for showers in the forecast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft
will then set up for the rest of the period, north/northeast of
subtropical ridging building over Mexico and the southwestern
Gulf. Various weak shortwaves emanating from the Southern Plains
combined with above normal PWATs for this time of year will result
in at least isolated to scattered showers and storms each day,
highest chances north further removed from the ridge. A bit more
coverage will be possible Friday afternoon and Friday night across
the far north as a cold front stalls to our north and then lifts
back to the north.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2024

The shortwave has pushed through TCL and BHM as of 11Z and will be
push through the rest of the north by 15 to 16z. Thunder is
included at BHM for an hour and ASN, ANB, and EET for the next
couple of hours. Starting to see an increase in activity near MGM
and will increase chances there through 16 to 18z. Skies clear
from 18z in the west to 21z in the east. There is a potential for
some fog tonight across the area. Confidence is not that high to
include at this time.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and a few storms will continue through the morning. The
rain should exit east Alabama by sunset tonight. 20 foot winds
will become west 6-8 mph today. Rain free conditions Wednesday
and Thursday with RH values dropping into the 30s. 20 foot winds
will be from north around 3-6 mph on Wednesday. the Another round
of wetting rains return on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     78  56  84  56 /  90   0   0   0
Anniston    78  58  85  58 /  90   0   0   0
Birmingham  80  60  85  61 /  80   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  82  60  87  61 /  40   0   0   0
Calera      80  60  85  60 /  80   0   0   0
Auburn      79  62  85  63 /  60  10   0   0
Montgomery  83  62  87  61 /  60   0   0   0
Troy        82  61  87  60 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...16