Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 241730
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
130 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from relatively localized lingering clouds, sunny
conditions are expected in the wake of yesterday`s storm as high
pressure builds in. More seasonable temperatures will return
during the work week, although the warmest air will be slow to
reach eastern Vermont. Some light rain, drizzle, and fog are
is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, then a chance of more
widespread precipitation returns Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 128 PM EDT Sunday...Minimal changes necessary with
clearing skies and only subtle adjustments made to temperatures.

Previous Discussion...
A quiet and mainly sunny period of weather is expected as an
upper air pattern of height rises and surface high pressure
supports dry conditions. The main forecasting challenge for
today will be the lingering clouds stuck in blocked flow in
western slopes of the higher terrain across Vermont and New
York. It`s difficult to find model guidance that maintains these
stubborn thin clouds as long as they tend to linger in this
pattern, but overall skies should trend sunny areawide by
midday. Also, having noted some flurries overnight in webcams
and automated weather stations across portions of northeastern
Vermont and southern Vermont, have mention of flurries moving
into the morning. Will let day shift see if they persist, but
again with clouds thinning expect coverage to become non-
existent.

Given the relaxing pressure gradient tonight and clear skies,
ideal radiational cooling perhaps areawide will take place
tonight. Therefore, with the boost of the fresh snowpack albedo,
have nudged temperatures down quite a bit for the overnight
hours. Monday morning lowest temperatures should be near zero in
many locations in the western Adirondacks and northeast
Kingdom, and in the single digits to low teens in most other
locations.

Some weak southeasterly flow will develop tonight aloft which
will lead to daytime conditions on Monday featuring terrain-
driven easterly/southerly winds. This light flow will minimize
temperature differences across these terrain features such that
highs should wind up being relatively uniform in the low to mid
40s for most locations. Abundant sunshine and much milder
temperatures aloft (near freezing 850 millibar temperatures, or
a rise of about 12 degrees Celsius in 24 hours) will assure that
we see a pretty nice day after a frigid start.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...The primary challenge during the
short term period wl be both high and low temps as atmosphere
becomes inverted. For Monday night sounding data indicates dry
layer btwn 975mb and 850mb, while some moisture aloft may result
in high clouds. This drying near the sfc wl result in a sharp
thermal inversion with coolest temps in the deeper/protected
valleys and warmer values in the mid/upper slopes. Helping to
enhance the thermal inversion wl be snow pack from recent storm,
especially acrs central/eastern and southern VT, including the
NEK. Fog potential wl need to be watched, as melting adds to bl
moisture and sharply falling temps could go below cross over
values, helping to enhance localized fog potential. Have lows in
the mid teens to lower 30s on Monday night, with large
variation based on elevation acrs our fa. For Tues the
challenging thermal profiles continue, especially as moderately
strong easterly flow develops on backside of high pres. Have
noted progged 925mb temps cooling to -1C for east-central VT
associated with cool/moist marine-time airmass advecting into
parts of our cwa, while values surge btwn 6-7C in the SLV. In
addition, snow pack is much less in the SLV, so temps should
warm well into the 50s to near 60F on Tues, while eastern VT
stays cool with potential low clouds developing aft 18z. Have
highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s for eastern section with
lower 50s CPV. Tues night 925mb easterly flow continues with
advection of shallow maritime moisture and cooling thermal
profiles for eastern/central VT. Latest NAM sounding data
suggests the potential for areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle for
eastern areas, while CPV and SLV temps hold in the upper
30s/lower 40s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...Low level east/southeast flow prevails on
Weds acrs eastern VT, while next s/w trof and associated cold frnt
approach the SLV. The squeeze play btwn moisture to our west and
lingering low clouds/drizzle acrs eastern sections continues on
Weds. Have continued with chc pops for rain showers associated with
approaching boundary and light rain/drizzle for eastern sections on
Weds. Temps wl once again be impacted by clouds with highs ranging
from the l/m 40s east to mid 50s west. By Thurs into Friday,
approaching closed cyclonic circulation is lifting toward Hudson
Bay, while deep southerly flow is paralleling slow moving cold frnt.
Additional s/w energy wl help to enhance sfc low pres along the
boundary late Thurs into Friday. The exact timing of s/w interaction
with boundary and sfc development/track wl help determine when and
where the greatest potential for measurable precip wl occur. Crnt
fcsts suggests central/easter VT wl have greatest potential on
Thurs, before moisture axis shifts to our east. Still plenty of
spread in our guidance on trof evolution and placement of deepest
moisture acrs our cwa, so have continued with chc pops for now.
Temps wl be above normal on Thurs, before gradually cooling to near
normal by Friday into Saturday, along with increasing potential for
mtn snow showers as progged 850mb temps drop btwn -4C and -8C late
in the period. Highs mid 30s to mid 40s by next week with lows mid
20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Lingering stratocumulus in the Adirondacks
has been slow to scatter, but is definitely on its way out
quickly, and should be gone by the initial hour of the forecast
period. Otherwise, light northerlies will go calm overnight
before switching south/southeasterly by 14Z Monday. VFR
conditions will prevail with dry air across the region.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A daily record snowfall of 8.6" was observed at BTV yesterday,
March 23rd. Since 1893, there have only been five greater
snowfalls this late in the season, most recently occurring
during the 1999-2000 season when 14.3" was observed on April
9th.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Boyd/Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...Kutikoff


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