094
FXUS61 KBUF 011317
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
917 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure building overhead today will gradually shift
east across the area through Friday morning supporting dry weather.
A series of fronts will slide across the Great Lakes Friday night
through Sunday bringing the next round of rain showers and some
rumbles of thunder.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
There`s some lingering fog this morning, mainly south of Lake
Ontario. This fog is shallow and will continue to gradually
dissipate during the morning hours.

A progressive mid-level shortwave ridge, and associated weak
surface high will pass across the forecast area today. This will
support fair dry weather along with some warm air advection.
Temperatures today will warm up into the 60s east of Lake
Ontario and low to mid 70s elsewhere.

The next shortwave trough will pass east across northern Ontario and
Quebec, Canada tonight, supporting a moisture starved cold front to
push across the region. Despite the frontal passage, mainly dry
weather will continue though a few showers will be possible across
the North Country. For those dry area, the frontal passage will be
noted by the patchy clouds and subtle wind shift. Temperatures
tonight will range in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging developing over the central Great Lakes
Thursday will amplify over the eastern CONUS on Friday. This
will allow dry weather through most of Friday afternoon before
an area of showers approaches from the west. Northwest flow
Thursday keeping lake areas cooler in the lower to mid 60s,
perhaps even a few degrees cooler along the immediate Lake
Ontario shoreline. The warmest readings Thursday will be inland
with readings reaching into the lower 70s.

Warm advection develops Friday as the flow turns southerly with
the upper ridge parked over the area and a surface high centers
off the Mid Atlantic coast. There will be increasing mid and
upper cloud cover during the afternoon which may temper high
temperatures a bit, but most readings should get into the 70s
with some lower 80s for normally warmer interior sections of the
Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Deepening moisture and
the slow approach of the cold front will start to gradually
bring in chances for showers starting late Friday across far
western New York. However, given the strong mid/upper ridge over
the eastern CONUS ahead of a low which is closing off and
lifting well northwest of the area into Minnesota and Canada,
feel that the cold front may be even slower to enter the region
than models suggest, which could delay precipitation chances
until Friday night. There is the potential for elevated rumbles
of thunder Friday night with nocturnal moisture transport and
low level jet forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A vertically stack low pressure system located over NW Ontario
Canada will slowly drag a cold through the eastern Great Lakes. Due
to the slow progression of this front, and then a potential
secondary front have kept low end PoPs across much the the forecast
area into Sunday. We should see a fairly widespread area of rain
Saturday move from west to east, which then gives way to chances for
showers into Sunday. Brief surface high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes Sunday night, causing any lingering showers to gradually
deplete from west to east.

Dry weather looks to persist through much of Monday but yet again
another warm frontal boundary will begin to approach from the
southwest. This will introduce a chance of shower either late Monday
night or during the day Tuesday. Still some timing issues to work
out but have once again added chance PoPs reflecting the front
nearing and entering the region.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through
the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lingering low cigs and fog this morning will continue to
dissipate late this morning, giving way to VFR flight conditions
this afternoon. A surface low well to the north of the area
passes east today/tonight, a moisture starved front will pass
across the region, supporting mainly VFR cloud cover to pass
across the Lake Ontario shoreline and North Country.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible
thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers otherwise mainly VFR weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradients are expected throughout the majority of the
week across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally
remain below 15 knots. Areas of fog on the lakes today. While
the week will remain quiet, a few showers and thunderstorms may
be possible Friday night through Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...Apffel/EAJ
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ