Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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966 FXUS62 KCAE 021004 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 604 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper ridging and surface high pressure will continue to build back into the region Thursday with high temps pushing 90F. Much the same expected for Friday before rain chances steadily increase late Friday evening into Saturday. Deep moisture convergence coinciding with an upper level trough will drive widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday. Lingering moisture and little changes aloft will yield further shower-storm chances Sunday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The sea breeze boundary has pushed into the central Midlands and dew points are higher east of CAE and AGS. Dense fog is developing in the southeast Midlands and went ahead and issued a dense fog advisory for that region. Will monitor satellite and observations for possible extension of the advisory inland toward CAE. The threat currently looks lower in the CSRA where the air mass is noticeably a little drier. After the fog lifts by 1000 am, surface ridge centered off the coast and upper ridge will be building across the area. Boundary layer temperatures this afternoon are a few degrees warmer than yesterday and soundings show subsidence inversion. Low level flow will be more southeast this afternoon which could keep temps down slightly given maritime influence, but think highs around CAE and AGS will be around 90 degrees. So went slightly above the NBM and overall consensus guidance for highs. Little change in the air mass tonight, so clear skies with maybe some patchy early morning fog. Lows mainly in the low 60s although slightly cooler in the SC Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Mid-upper level ridging will begin to flatten out Friday as a series of shortwaves push through the ridge axis. Offshore surface ridging will consequently weaken slightly, but will shift far enough east to allow southwesterly to develop below 500mb. Moisture advection will be fairly slow however, keeping PWAT`s stuck around 1.0" through later Friday and thus keep precip chances low until late Friday evening; hi-res guidance and global deterministic push the vast majority of resolved diurnal precip into the extreme western CSRA and Upstate. Sufficient moisture convergence for scattered precip in the CSRA and Midlands will arrive overnight Friday and Saturday morning with PWAT`s jumping over 1.5" as a sharper 500-250mb trough slides into AL-GA. The poor diurnal timing with this initial moisture surge should prevent much in the way of thunderstorm activity but some scattered showers will likely develop. Diurnal heating, the approaching shortwave aloft, and strong moisture convergence with PWAT`s over 1.75" will yield widespread showers and storms Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will likely remain weak however as only modest instability will develop with meager mid-level lapse rates and cloud cover; GEFS prob of > 500 J/kg is ~80% for most of the area, but > 1000 J/kg is only 10-20%. Organized convection is also not expected as very weak mid-level flow will only muster 0-6km shear of 10-15 knots. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A summer-like pattern is expected to develop as we move late in the weekend and into next week with broad ridging remaining across the SE CONUS. NAEFS highlights this period pretty clearly with slightly above average heights, temps, and PWAT`s yielding a favorable setup climatologically for diurnal shower-storms each day. While the ridge will remain anchored aloft, some shortwaves associated with a deep trough over the north- central CONUS will provide some further focus for lift and precip chances, especially on Monday, with the conditional unstable airmass lingering. GEFS and ECE steadily increase instability each afternoon as the airmass steadily warms with southwest low- level flow expected to continue; probs of > 1000 J/kg are over 50% by Monday. Towards the end of the longer term period and into late next week, well above average temps are expected to develop; there is increasing potential for high temps in the low- mid 90`s (10-15 degrees above average) as GEFS and EC members come into tighter agreement. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Restrictions in fog early this morning. Pressure ridge across the area. Dense fog has developed at the OGB terminal. Satellite showing fog/stratus moving inland toward the CAE and CUB terminals at 10z. Drier air near AGS and DNL so fog threat appears lower at those terminals. A sea breeze front has moved into central SC and dew points have come up a bit from OGB to CAE. Will continue with MVFR fog at CAE/CUB with tempo IFR through 13z...the fog appears to be just to the west of CAE. LIFR visibility at OGB. After the fog lifts, expect scattered cumulus in the afternoon especially in eastern SC associated with sea breeze. Winds light and variable early then favoring southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog and stratus possible through the period. Increased potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Monday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ031-035- 037-038-041-135>137. GA...None. && $$