Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 211842
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair today with above normal high temperatures. Friday is a
cooler day with rain overspreading the region during the
morning and early afternoon hours. The rain continues into
Friday night as low pressure passes near/over the forecast area,
tapering off to scattered showers on Saturday. Sunday is fair,
breezy, and cooler as high pressure builds in. The next chance
of rain occurs during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak frontal boundary has moved south of the area. Pressure
ridge centered over southeast VA extending southwest across the
area. Although low level flow is becoming east-south-easterly,
the air mass remains dry with precipitable water around 0.5
inches. Mid and high level clouds will increase this evening as
the subtropical jet lifts northeast from the Gulf coast ahead
of upper low moving east across the southern Plains. Late
tonight the low level south-easterly moisture flux will increase
as weak low pressure develops in the northern Gulf of Mexico. So
expect some lower cloudiness toward daybreak but any rain
should hold off until after daybreak. With overcast skies
developing, low temps warmer than previous nights, guidance
consistent in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low centered near the Arklatex at the start of the period
slowly moves east opening into an open wave Friday night,
passing over the region on Saturday, and then offshore by
daybreak Sunday. At the surface, weak low pressure in the GOMEX
at daybreak Friday moves northeast, passing near/over the FA
Friday night, and into New England on Saturday.

Friday and Friday Night: The day begins cloudy but dry for the
majority of the Midlands and CSRA. However, rain chances should
quickly ramp up during the morning and early afternoon hours as
southeasterly flow advects moisture into the region and rain
overspreads the FA. The heaviest rainfall is expected during
the evening and overnight hours as surface low pressure passes
through the Southeastern US. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out but the threat of severe weather is low due to
limited instability. The clouds and rain result in cooler
temperatures on Friday with highs 5-10 degrees lower than today.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Lingering moisture combined with
the approaching upper trough will keep the clouds in place with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. While the threat
of rain is more localized on Saturday, there is enough
confidence, 45 to 65 percent, to maintain Chance to Likely PoPs
across the FA. Rain chances should quickly decrease at night as
a colder, drier air mass rushes in with clearing skies as well.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Building upper ridging combined with surface high pressure
passing to our north will likely result in dry conditions on
Sunday and Monday. Sunday is cooler and breezy at times,
especially during the morning hours. Will need to look into the
potential for frost/freeze conditions Sunday night but this will
be largely dependent on how quickly surface winds diminish.
Monday will likely feature similar temperatures with lighter
winds. The next chance of rain will be during the middle of next
week as a slow-moving storm system moves through the Eastern
CONUS. Temperatures are near to slightly above normal Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions through at least 06z. Ceiling
restrictions possible toward 12z Friday.

Pressure ridge to the northeast of the area, so low level flow
will be light east-southeast through the overnight. Air mass
remains mainly dry this afternoon with only high clouds
increasing. A few prescribed fires in the area but smoke plumes
appears to not be impacting terminals at the moment. Mid and
high level clouds will increase tonight, especially after 06z as
weak low pressure develops in the northern Gulf and moisture
advection increases off the Atlantic. Patchy low stratus is
possible toward 12z, mainly 09z-15z Friday. Low clouds may
scatter out after 15z with mid level ceilings to end of taf
period. Some light rain will be possible after 12z, but not
expected to impact visibilities in the morning.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$


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