085
FXUS61 KCAR 031601
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1201 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today into Saturday.
An occluded front will approach Saturday night, cross the area
Sunday, then exit east of the area Sunday night. High pressure
will return Monday into Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
High pressure centered north of Maine will ridge south across
the region today. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will move
south across the forecast area in advance of an approaching
ridge. With diurnal cloud development and clouds wrapping back
across the region from the Maritimes, expect partly sunny/mostly
cloudy skies across the forecast area this afternoon. High
temperatures will generally range from the upper 50s to lower
60s across the forecast area. Have updated to adjust for current
conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures and
clouds.

Previous Discussion...
We will remain in a narrow ridge of high pressure both surface
and aloft tonight. Some patchy stratocumulus will linger across
the area with some isolated areas of fog in southern areas.
Otherwise, tonight will be tranquil and dry with low near 40.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Models are in pretty good agreement for this ptn of the fcst in
that Sat and Sat Ngt look to be fair with intervals of cldnss as
weak sfc high pres holds ovr the FA. Sun will begin ptly sunny,
then become cldy and breezy in the Aftn as a s/wv an weakening
warm occluded frontal zone begins to apch from the W. Shwrs
from this system will msly occur ovr the Rgn durg Sun Ngt with
most areas receiving arnd a tenth of an inch with lcly 0.15 to
0.20 inches possible, warranting max PoPs in the likely range.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in reasonable agreement that a break in shwr activity
ovr our FA will occur from mid Morn til Erly Aftn, following the
passage of a weakening warm occlusion and ahead of fairly strong
secondary cold front and associated s/wv from Hudson Bay. The
warmest air in the llvls will arrive durg this tm frame allowing
temps to get well into the 60s, perhaps even near 70 ovr inland
low trrn lctns. In the meantime, temps abv 700mb will begin
falling even ahead of the secondary cold front durg the Aftn,
with this vertical differential htg resulting in sct shwrs and
even possible thunderstorms msly Nrn/Cntrl areas ahead and alg
the secondary cold front mid to late Mon Aftn.

Shwrs will move E and dissipate behind the cold front Mon Eve,
with the rest of Mon Ngt and Tue looking to be fair, breezy and
cooler, with some llvl cold advcn SC cld cvr possible ovr Nrn
areas late Tue Morn into Aftn. Under Can sfc high pres, Tue Ngt
looks to be fair with dmnshg winds and cool spcly Nrn areas with
good radiational cooling.

Wed will start ptly cldy ovr the Rgn, then turn msly cldy from
the W as another weakening occluded sfc low and s/wv alf system
apchs from the Midwest. Shwrs from this system are most likely
going to impact our FA Wed Ngt into Thu, but longer range models
are not in good agreement on rnfl totals durg this tm frame,
with the 00z dtmnstc GFS the greatest and the corresponding
ECMWF much lighter, subsequently max PoPs were kept in the high
chc range. Longer range models are in a little more agreement
on possible more sig rnfl toward the weekend, currently just
beyond this fcst domain. Temps will be msly near normal for Wed
and Thu.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected this afternoon through early
tonight. VFR/MVFR ceilings later tonight. North/northeast winds
10 to 15 knots this afternoon, except becoming variable along
the Downeast coast. Light and variable winds tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sat - Sun...all TAF sites VFR with lgt
winds.

Sun Ngt...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with ocnl shwrs.
Lgt Winds.

Mon...all TAF sites VFR clgs. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in Aftn
shwrs msly Nrn TAF sites. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg NW late in
the day.

Mon Ngt - Tue...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW
winds.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this
afternoon through tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm. Kept close
to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly
composed of two spectral groups; a shorter 4 to 6 sec and a
longer 10 to 12 sec pd swell.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Norcross/VJN
Marine...Norcross/VJN