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000
FXUS62 KCHS 162201
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
601 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist through the end of the work week. A
cold front is forecasted to impact our area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
No significant changes were made for the early evening update.
Isolated showers/tstms over the northern Midlands into the
northwestern Pee Dee will remain well to the north this evening.

Tonight: The forecast area will remain under the influence of
dry high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. An area of
thicker cirrus will shift offshore this evening and should
leave us under clear skies for much of the overnight. Cirrus
will then increase from the west as sunrise Wednesday
approaches. Overnight lows will be warmer than the previous
night, with upper 50s and low 60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Larger scale pattern flattens/becomes a bit more progressive
across the CONUS for the latter half of the week as a deeper
closed low settles into south-central Canada and the Northern
Plains region. Surface high pressure centered near Bermuda and
extending into the southeast coast will remain the dominant
player (fair weather) through the middle of the week although
there will be increased higher based cloud cover spreading into
the region from the west as the upper level heights flatten and
the southern stream jet axis lays out across the Gulf and
southeast CONUS region. By Friday, the southern tail of a
weakening boundary will press into and potentially stall across
the southeast region with modest moisture pooling along and
south of the boundary. This will become the focus for lower end
precip chances later Friday and heading into the weekend (see
below) although impacts are looking minimal at this juncture.

Otherwise, well above normal temperatures will persist (middle
80s to near 90) through the balance of the week with daytime
highs a good 10+ degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overall zonal flow pattern is looking to remain in place across
the CONUS through the weekend with a trend toward a bit more
troughiness developing through the eastern CONUS early next week
with lowering heights across the southeast. As mentioned above,
boundary is looking to stall across the southeast at least
through Saturday before finally getting shunted down into
Florida Sunday into Monday. This will remain the focus for
increased precip chances through the weekend and into Monday
with the higher chances potentially later Sunday into Sunday
night as the boundary gets shoved through the region. Given the
overall uncertainty, we are maintaining slight chance to chance
precip chances through the period, again with the better chances
later Sunday into Sunday night. Drying out later Monday and
Tuesday.

Temperatures remain above normal through Saturday, cooling down
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
17/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 18/00z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Friday. A front stalling
across the region may bring occasional flight restrictions late
Friday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Overall, no concerns as south to southwest flow
prevails across the local waters. Wind speeds will mostly be no
more than 10 knots, except for early in the evening along the
land/sea interface where 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots will
be possible. Seas will average around 2 feet, but could be as
high as 3 feet around 20 nm and beyond.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure near Bermuda will
remain the dominant player through at least Thursday with
overall south to southwesterly flow. Winds will be locally
enhanced along the coast during the afternoon into the evening
with formation of a sea breeze. But with gusts 20 knots or less
and seas 2 to 3 feet, marine headlines are not anticipated.

Surface boundary will be pressing into the southeast states
later Friday, potentially stalling across the region into the
weekend before finally pressing through the region late in the
Weekend into Monday. Overall southerly/southwesterly flow will
persist through much of the weekend, before shifting into the
north/northeast thereafter.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$