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000
FXUS61 KCLE 140602
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
202 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge will build over the region early this evening
and shift to the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday morning. Meanwhile low
pressure will track southeast across the northern Great Lakes to New
York by Sunday evening. A trailing cold front will drop south
through the region Sunday night and high pressure will build into
the region on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

2:02 AM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion...
Fair weather is expected for much of tonight as a ridge of high
pressure moves overhead and to the mid Atlantic coast by
morning. A weak/diffuse warm front will lift northeast late
tonight and early Sunday morning and may produce a few showers
and thunderstorms, mainly over Lake Erie and NW PA, via moist
isentropic ascent and release of weak/elevated CAPE along the
upper-reaches of the front. Much warmer air will advect into the
region in the wake of the warm front. Instability will increase
in the afternoon with CAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/KG. Deeper wind
shear will increase to near 40 knots. As a cold front
approaches the region in the mid afternoon, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop mainly east of I-71. The ample
wind shear will help organize and sustain storms. There is
mainly a marginal threat of severe weather (hail and damaging
wind) as the convection develops and intensify in the CWA before
moving to the east.

The front will drop south through the area Sunday night and the
chance of showers and storms will end by midnight.

High temperatures will range from near 65 at the nw PA shoreline
to near 80 at FDY. Low temperatures tonight and Sunday night
will mainly be in the 40s, except slightly cooler in nw PA this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper ridge building into the Great Lakes region on Monday
will allow for surface high pressure to remain strong across the
area and have a dry forecast for Monday and Monday night.
Temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler than Sunday
behind a cold front with more noticeably cooler temperatures in
NE OH and NW PA, where the front will be stronger and
precipitation on Sunday will help temperatures tumble. For
Tuesday, the former cold front from Sunday will lift north to
the lake as a warm front. There could be some rain showers with
this front and perhaps some thunder, depending on how much
instability returns to the region. THe main upper trough and low
will begin to enter late in the period and have PoPs increasing
appropriately.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The most active system of the week will be largely into the forecast
area on Wednesday as an upper trough will support a low pressure
system into the Great Lakes region. A high PoP for showers and
thunderstorms is reflected in the forecast for Wednesday with the
system in the region. There could be some stronger convection with
good jet energy across the region. The question will once again be
instability, especially with the system timing across the area. The
system will trek east Wednesday night into Thursday and have
decreasing PoPs back to chance levels as the system departs. The
next upper trough digs into the upper Midwest for Friday into
Saturday and will bring another system to the region with some
marginal rain chances at this time. The more notable feature with
this system will be the return of cooler temperatures, perhaps
cooler than normal for the weekend into next week. There will be
some frost/freeze potential depending on how the set up evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
NW`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our region
through 06Z/Mon. At the surface, a ridge exits generally E`ward
before a cold front sweeps generally S`ward through our area
between ~22Z/Sun and ~04Z/Mon. Behind the front, a ridge builds
from the north-central United States and vicinity. Our regional
surface winds trend S`erly to W`erly around 10 to 20 knots
ahead of the front. Gusts up to 20 to 35 knots are expected,
especially between ~14Z and ~23Z/Sun. Note: LLWS is expected
over northern OH prior to 14Z/Sun as a WSW`erly jet streak of
about 50 knots at/near 925 mb affects the area. Behind the
front, NW`erly surface winds around 10 to 15 knots are expected
for several hours before becoming variable in direction and
easing to around 5 knots as a relaxing MSLP gradient accompanies
the post-front ridge.

Primarily fair weather and VFR are expected during the TAF
period. However, ascent ahead of a subtle disturbance aloft may
trigger isolated showers/thunderstorms over/near eastern Lake
Erie and NW PA between ~10Z and ~14Z/Sun. Additional isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and
just ahead of the cold front, especially east of roughly I-71.
These storms may produce brief/erratic surface gusts up to 55
knots and damaging hail. The cold front-related showers/storms
should last no more than several hours at any impacted TAF site.
Brief MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility are possible with
showers/storms.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak low will pass north of the lake on Sunday and extend a
cold front across the basin. This feature will generate some
showers and storms and winds will increase from the southwest
ahead of the front. Issued a Small Craft Advisory from Cleveland
to Erie PA where winds will increase to 20-25 knots. Winds will
be near Small Craft levels west of Cleveland and it may need to
be expanded. With the frontal passage, the winds will veer to
the north and decrease. High pressure will be across the region
on Monday and allow for light flow, eventually shifting to
southerly. A warm front will lift to the lake on Tuesday and
promote easterly flow across the basin. The front will lift
north of the lake for Wednesday as a low pressure system moves
through the Great Lakes region and there will be concern for a
marine headline with that system.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sefcovic