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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241748
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
148 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Ontario will build over the area by
tonight and continue to influence the weather through Friday
before drifting east off the New England coast. A warm front
will lift across the local area Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM Update...
Overall, not a ton of changes needed with this update. Any
lingering light showers/sprinkles should taper off this
afternoon and clouds will rapidly clear from north to south
tonight as high pressure begins to nose south into the region.

Previous discussion...
The surface analysis early this morning shows the cold front is just
approaching Lake Erie with an abrupt wind shift to the northwest
behind it. The front will cross Lake Erie this morning but cold
advection will continue to increase into this afternoon as
temperatures at 925mb cool by 7-10C. Northerly winds will be breezy
behind the cold front with winds gusting to around 20 mph at times.
High temperatures will occur this morning ahead of the front with
temperatures settling into the low to mid 40s this afternoon under
mostly cloudy skies. When you take the wind into effect, wind chills
will be in the mid 30s from North Central Ohio into Northwest
Pennsylvania making for a chilly late April day.

Showers continue to spread east across Lake Erie and eastern
portions of the forecast area ahead of a shortwave and cold pool
aloft. While the deeper moisture and better coverage of showers
shifts east through 10 AM, scattered showers remain possible off
eastern Lake Erie with lingering low level convergence before the
ridge starts to build in this afternoon. Not quite cold enough for
pure lake effect rain showers but some enhancement with scattered
showers off the lake is expected. Moisture depth really decreases
through the afternoon and expect the last of the light showers or
sprinkles to be done by this evening. Have slowed down the clearing
a little more with some breaks starting to develop downwind of the
lake in NW Ohio by mid afternoon, then gradually scattering out
through midnight as subsidence associated with the building high
pressure wins out. With that said, some patches of cloud could
remain tonight and complicate where Freeze Warnings/Frost Advisories
may be needed. Decided to let the day shift monitor moisture and
clearing trends and make the final call today. The forecast still
supports a widespread freeze with much of the area dropping below 30
degrees and potentially a hard freeze with cooler spots into the mid
to upper 20s. Winds will also be light which is conducive to
widespread frost.

Thursday will be mostly sunny, although a shallow cu field may
develop inland from Lake Erie. With a continued cool northeast flow
off the lake, lakeshore areas will remain near 50 degrees while
southern areas should warm into the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be departing to the east Thursday night into
Friday, though will still be close enough Thursday night to allow
for one more mostly clear night with fairly light winds. There will
be a bit more of a gradient than tonight and the airmass will be
starting to warm a bit, so not expecting quite as much of a frost /
freeze threat. However, with lows mainly ranging from the mid 30s to
near 40 (locally near freezing from interior Northeast OH into
interior Northwest PA) there should be some frost, though on a
somewhat patchier basis than what`s expected where skies clear
tonight. Frost will favor locations away from the immediate
lakeshore where winds are able to decouple. Much of Friday will be
dry, though mid and high-level clouds will be on the increase with
some potential for showers ahead of a warm front to approach I-75 by
the early evening hours. Highs on Friday will respond nicely to the
southeasterly flow and 850mb temperatures warming to 8-10C...most of
the area should get into the low to mid 70s.

Low pressure will develop over the Plains Thursday night into Friday
and lift through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Friday night and
Saturday. This low will lift a warm front across the area Friday
night into Saturday morning. As mentioned above, modest shower
chances may begin encroaching on I-75 before sunset Friday, though
otherwise activity will hold off until Friday night into Saturday
morning from west to east. This won`t be a big rain maker and with
very modest amounts of elevated instability, severe weather isn`t a
concern either. However, a combination of the lifting warm front,
support from the right-entrance quadrant of an upper-level jet
streak Friday night into early Saturday, a fairly strong and moist
low-level jet ascending into the upper-level jet support, and a flat
mid-level shortwave supports most of the area seeing at least some
measurable rain Friday night into Saturday morning. Given models are
generally consistent on timing, maintain a period of likely to
categorical POPs (60-80%) for nearly all of forecast area Friday
night or early Saturday, save for the Mount Vernon area where POPs
decrease into the chance (~50%) range. Have a slight chance of
thunder mentioned as that`s generally a good practice with warm
fronts in the spring, but the amount of instability to work with
will be limited so it should be more "showers" than "thunderstorms".

Rain potential will diminish west of I-77 by early Saturday morning
and will exit east of there by midday as the warm front and
accompanying jet support continue lifting away from the area. This
will leave a mainly dry Saturday behind the warm front, with just
low chances for a stray shower or thunderstorm to pop up in the
afternoon as weak instability tries developing. With some continued
warm air/moisture advection continuing off and on through Saturday
night keep some very low (20-30%) POPs in the forecast, especially
over Northeast OH and Northwest PA...however, the forcing will be
weak and instability limited, so still suspect that the general
flavor for Saturday and Saturday night will be mainly dry once the
warm front and associated showers are able to exit the area.

Lows Friday night will range significantly from the mid 40s east of
Meadville to the upper 50s to near 60 west of I-77 in Ohio. Fairly
deep mixing into strong deep-layer southwest flow, the strong late
April sun, and 850mb temperatures climbing to 12-14C will support
highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80 Saturday...perhaps a bit
cooler in Northwest PA if clouds/showers linger longer. Lows
Saturday night will be very mild, ranging from the mid to upper 50s
in PA to the low to mid 60s across much of Ohio. It will be breezy
to windy on Saturday, especially from mid-morning through early
afternoon as the combination of a weakening (but still 40-45 knot)
low-level jet and deepening mixing allows stronger gusts to mix
down. Generally think much of the area will see 30-35 MPH gusts,
though locations along the eastern lakeshore and generally northwest
of I-71 may see a few hours of 40-45 MPH gusts. This is reflected by
the NBM depicting modest probabilities (generally 20-40%) of gusts
actually exceeding advisory-criteria (46 MPH) in a small chunk of
Northwest and North Central OH. Ultimately do not think we`ll need a
headline anywhere but the wind will be noticeable on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stout ridge will be in place over the eastern US Sunday and into
Monday, with the ridge beginning to shift east and flatten later
Monday into Monday night as a trough and associated cold front
progress east out of the central US. Expect warm and mainly dry
conditions (save for an isolated shower or storm) Sunday through a
good portion of Monday. At some point late Monday or Monday night,
expect greater rain chances to arrive along or just ahead of the
advancing cold front. Models disagree somewhat on the frontal
timing, with the GFS and Euro suggesting a passage Monday night into
early Tuesday while the Canadian model is more solidly during the
day Tuesday. If anything, timing has trended slightly slower in
recent runs, which isn`t unreasonable given the approaching trough
will be flattening out as it approaches with a stout ridge only
slowly giving way to the east ahead of the trough and cold front.
Regardless, all models have a sufficient combination of moisture,
modest instability, and forcing with the cold front and upper-level
diffluence ahead of the approaching trough to suggest that much of
the area should get wet with the cold frontal passage. Felt model
agreement on timing was enough to hit everyone with at least one
period of likely (60%) POPs at some point between late Monday and
early Tuesday. POPs diminish west to east into Tuesday as high
pressure will build in behind the front, though given some
disagreement on the front`s timing do hold onto at least a bit of a
rain mention Tuesday east of a Sandusky to Upper Sandusky line.

Temperatures will remain well above normal for Sunday and Monday,
quite possibly approaching or reaching the low 80s across parts of
the area, before cooling at least somewhat behind the front on
Tuesday. Not looking at much of a severe weather or heavy rain
threat with this front. Some models have a moderate amount of shear
with enough instability late Monday into Monday evening that there
could be a few stronger storms if frontal timing isn`t too slow from
the west, though overall am only seeing the ingredients in place for
a rather low-end / run-of-the-mill severe threat, if even that.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
MVFR/IFR will persist through this afternoon before high
pressure begins to build south over the area. Expect rapid
clearing from north to south this evening into tonight and
ceilings should quickly improve to VFR. The high will settle
over the region through the remainder of the TAF period,
resulting in continued VFR through Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in periodic showers and
thunderstorms Friday evening through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Another day, another Small Craft Advisory for most of the nearshore
waters between the Islands and Conneaut, OH as north-northwest winds
freshen to 15-25 knots behind a cold front this morning. This will
build 3 to occasionally 6 foot waves between the Islands and
Conneaut. Winds and waves will be a bit weaker and smaller farther
west towards Toledo and east of Conneaut, so did not include
nearshore waters off of Lucas County OH or Erie County PA in the
advisory. The headline runs 8 AM to 8 PM today, with some potential
to be canceled a couple hours early if winds and waves can come down
quickly enough later this afternoon.

High pressure will move over the lake tonight before departing to
the east/southeast Thursday into Friday. Tranquil marine conditions
are expected tonight and Thursday morning. A period of 10-15 knot
east-northeast winds may be just enough to build some chop between
the Islands and Willowick, OH Thursday afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, winds will remain east-northeast through Friday afternoon
before shifting more south-southeast Friday night and southwest
Saturday through Monday. Speeds of around 15 knots will be common
Friday into Friday evening, which will build waves across the
western and central basins...though the current wind/wave forecast
does remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria for that period. The
strongest winds are expected late Friday night into Saturday, as
winds turn south and southwest at 20 to 25 knots. This will build 4
to 7 footers in the open waters, especially across the central
basin, and will likely necessitate a period of wind-driven Small
Craft Advisories for most or all nearshore zones late Friday night
through a good chunk of Saturday. Strong offshore flow and cold
waters could catch inexperienced mariners in smaller craft off
guard, so don`t want to downplay the potential need for advisories
even with a purely offshore wind. Winds diminish into a 15-20 knot
range for Sunday and Monday, which is still somewhat brisk but will
allow marine conditions to improve somewhat.

There is a low risk for isolated thunderstorms over the lake from
Friday night through Monday afternoon. There is greater potential
for thunderstorms over the lake Monday evening and night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday
     morning for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...Freeze Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday
     morning for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ143>148.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Maines
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Sullivan