469
FXUS64 KCRP 010531
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1231 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Key Messages:

 Coastal Flooding and High Risk of Rip Currents will continue into
  tomorrow

 Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms

Quasi-zonal flow is expected to continue tonight through Wednesday
night which should lead to generally quiet weather. A shortwave is
expected to traverse across the region tonight and tomorrow, with
the one tomorrow being the more significant one leading to our best
chances for rain. The shortwave tonight is expected to be north of
our CWA, however, some Hi-res models are showing the tail end of the
vorticity sneaking into the Rio Grande Plains with a low chance to
promote some thunderstorms. The shortwave tomorrow is expected to be
a little bit stronger which when combined with an abundance of
available moisture, will lead to low to medium chances for rain.
Some Hi-res models are showing an MCS develop in the Hill Country
tomorrow and sweeping into South Texas, however, confidence on that
solution remains low at this time.

Despite swell heights and periods finally beginning to decrease,
they remain elevated as Buoy 42019 showing swell heights of 4.5-5 ft
and periods of 8-9 seconds. With swell heights and periods remaining
elevated and webcam across local beaches today continuing to show
minor coastal flooding, did not feel comfortable letting the
advisory expire tonight. These conditions will also lead to a
continued risk of high rip currents. This will be especially
noticeable in any areas of egress from the intracoastal waters as
the waters from minor coastal flooding find their way back to the
Gulf.

Warm temperatures are expected to continue tomorrow with highs in
the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat index values from the mid 90s to
near 102 degrees. Overnight lows will not provide much relief as

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Key Messages:

 Low chance (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday

 Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts daily

Predominantly zonal flow will persist across Texas into the upcoming
weekend with shortwave disturbances combining with above normal
moisture (PWATs 1.6 to 1.9") to bring daily low end chances for
showers and thunderstorms.  The limiting factor will be the lack of
a surface boundary.  However the sea breeze may provide that focus
as it propagates inland from the coast during the peak of the
afternoon/evening.  Best chances for a shower or thunderstorm will
be across the Rio Grande, Brush Country and northern coastal plains.
ECENS continues to be the wetter solution with Total QPF greater
than 1", while the GEFS is indicating about 1/3 of that amount.
Conditions dry out for Sunday as a weak mid level ridge moves
overhead.

Otherwise, heat will continue to be our primary concern through the
extended forecast with high temperatures in the upper 80s to upper
90s and lows only dropping into the 70s.  Max heat indices could
approach 105 out west late in the week. Please remember to drink
plenty of water and take frequent breaks if outdoors for a prolonged
period of time. Additional heat safety can be found at:
weather.gov/safety/heat

.Coastal Hazards...moderate onshore winds and wave periods of 7-
8 seconds Thursday/Friday may lead to a continuation of minor
coastal flooding and increased risk of rip currents.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A mix of VFR/MVFR continues this evening, but is expected to become
predominately MVFR across S TX by or after 06Z with LRD and COT
being around 08Z. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR
Wednesday afternoon except from VCT to ALI where MVFR CIGs may
persist. Isolated thunderstorms in Mexico near DRT is showing
signs of weakening and is not expected to reach COT. There is a
low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday, but should generally stay mainly across the northern
Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the weekend.
There is a slight 10-20% chance for showers Wednesday through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  87  76  87 /   0  10  10  10
Victoria          73  86  75  86 /   0  40  20  20
Laredo            76  94  76  96 /  20  20  20  20
Alice             74  89  75  91 /   0  30  10  20
Rockport          76  84  76  84 /   0  20  10  10
Cotulla           75  92  75  93 /  20  30  30  20
Kingsville        75  89  76  89 /   0  20  10  20
Navy Corpus       76  86  76  85 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...TE/81