National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDDC 101709
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions return to
  southwest Kansas from Thursday through Monday.

- Highs in the 80s and possibly some low 90s for the weekend.

- A storm system that will move into the central plains on
  Monday bears watching however latest trends suggest more of a
  fire and high wind threat and less of a severe threat for
  western Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

06z observations and RAP upper air analysis show a closed 5610
dm low centered near Midland, TX with a 700 mb fgen band
extending north and westward into northwest Oklahoma. In the
vicinity of the lift some radar echos and light rain has been
reported around Woodward and Alva, OK. As the rain tries to move
into Kansas the drier air at the surface and lack of lift is
fizzling out the rain as it enters into Barber county with
either sprinkles or virga falling. A weak surface front is
bisecting southwest Kansas from Elkhart to Hays.

Today the main feature of interest will be a 700 mb shortwave
entering northwest Kansas by late afternoon and a second cold
front that will move through western Kansas as a result. Winds
should increase after 15Z with the first stationary boundary
starting to move south and then after 21Z with the secondary
cold front moving through. HRRR, RAP, and NAM are trying to
develop a little band of rain showers with the 700 mb lift with
the second front later this afternoon but with the dry air at
the surface I only included some sprinkles wording as it looks
more like a virga/sprinkles set up rather than any organized
rainfall.

Tonight any rain activity should quickly end after sunset and
850 mb winds increase through the night as the second cold front
should be well into northern Oklahoma by midnight. Winds during
the night will be at 15-30 mph so despite the cold air advection
through the night the boundary layer being more mixed should
keep temperatures more in the mid to upper 30s for lows.

Thursday a surface high builds on the lee side of the Rockies
and with this the tightest pressure gradient and strongest
winds will be mainly along and east of highway 83 and strongest
along the 183-281 corridors. Winds through the day will be 15-25
mph with gusts up to 35 mph at times out of the north. A band
of drier air will also move in from the northwest and with dew
points falling into the mid 10s we could see relative humidity
values in the strongest winds at 15% which would put red flag
criteria possibly into play. Winds should diminish by sunset as
the surface high moves into western Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024


Elevated to critical fire weather will be the case from Friday
through Monday as we will have several days of relative humidity
values dropping below 15% and wind speeds over 20 mph. The
highest confidence of fire weather will be Saturday and Monday
as we could see humidity values on Saturday 10-15% west of a
Hays to Ashland line and southwest winds 20-30 with gusts to
near 40. Similar conditions will occur again on Monday with a
storm system that moves into the central plains.

Before the storm system Monday we will also have strong warm air
advection Saturday and Sunday as 850 mb temps climb into the
20-23(C) range and with dry air at the surface ensembles have a
100% chance of 80 degree temperatures and 20-40% chance of
seeing highs in the 90s on Sunday for areas along and east of
highway 283.

Monday the latest ensembles have a closed low transitioning to a
longwave trough as it enters the plains with a jet streak
located in Oklahoma and northwest Texas. The trough at this
point is neutral to slightly negative and the EPS and GEFS
ensembles are keeping dew points pretty dry. This would lead to
a classic fire weather and strong wind set up for southwest
Kansas and severe weather chances being focused more to the
east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A few sprinkles may accompany an upper level disturbance as it
crosses western Kansas between 00z and 06z Thursday. VFR
conditions are expected today and tonight but a brief period
where ceilings of 8000 to 12000ft AGL will be possible as this
upper wave passes. Winds will in the 1500 to 2000ft AGL level
be on the increase overnight as a reinforcement of cooler air
invades southwest Kansas. These winds will range from 40 to 45
knots overnight based on the latest BUFR soundings. As a result
have inserted a period of low level wind shear in the TAFS
between 06z and 15z Thursday. North northwest surface winds at
15 to 20 knots will fall back to around 15knots after sunset.
These winds will then increase to around 20 knots between 15z
and 18z Thursday as the stronger winds in the boundary layer
mixes down to the surface.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Burgert