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000
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3645 (S09W40,
Dki/beta-gamma) produced two M1.0/1f flares at 21/1259 UTC and 22/0813
UTC, and was mostly stable following a period of minor growth early this
period. Region 3638 (S18W44, Cri/beta) produced an M2.2/1n flare at
21/1514 UTC and an M3.4/Sn flare at 22/2152 UTC, and began to show signs
of decay. Regions 3646 (N21E07, Cai/beta) and 3652 (N15E24, Dao/beta)
exhibited growth while the remaining regions were mostly stable
throughout the period.

Two CMEs, associated with the M3.4/Sn flare at 22/2152 UTC and a C8.9
flare at 22/0537 UTC from Region 3638, are being analyzed for an
Earth-directed component. The remaining CMEs observed this period have
been analyzed as misses.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low over 22-24 Apr, with M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a chance for an X-class flare
(R3/Strong).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 22-24 Apr. There is a slight chance for the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) storm levels over
22-24 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the
visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions were nominal throughout the period. Wind speeds
were steady at around 450 km/s, total magnetic field strength reached a
peak of 8 nT, and the Bz component varied +/-6 nT. The phi angle was in
a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-24 Apr
due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels this period.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 22-23 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 24 Apr, due to
negative polarity CH HSS influences.