Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 280031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Mar 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3615 (S13W55,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for two M1.1 flares and numerous
C-class flares. This AR continued to be the largest, most complex region
on the visible disk. Region 3617 (S14W18, Hsx/alpha) exhibited signs of
decay, and Region 3623 (S19W55, L=223) decayed to plage. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for an X-class flares
(R3/Strong), over 28-30 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of
Region 3615.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated, but
below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at
normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 30
Mar primarily due to the potential and location of AR 3615. There is a
chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels
beginning on 28 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a CME that left the
Sun on 23 Mar. Total field was between 4-5 nT, and the Bz component was
mostly northward. Solar wind speeds averaged 500 km/s. Phi was
predominantly positive .

.Forecast...
Ambient-like solar wind conditions are expected to return 28 Mar.
Slighted elevated parameters are possible on 29-30 Mar with CH HSS
influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 28 Mar with a return
of isolated unsettled periods by late on 29-30 Mar under negative
polarity CH HSS effects.


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