306
ACUS01 KWNS 070051
SWODY1
SPC AC 070050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple intense (EF3+),
long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe
thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central
Plains this evening into the overnight hours.

...South-Central Plains...

Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined trough advancing across
the central High Plains early this evening. Southern influence of
this feature is now beginning to affect northwestern TX/southwestern
OK as evident by agitated cu field and towers deepening along the
TX/OK border. Latest surface observations depict backing flow into
this region, while dew points in the upper 60s to near 70F will soon
surge into this deepening cu field. 00z sounding from OUN is very
impressive with 3700 J/kg MLCAPE, 400 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, and steep
lapse rates. Additionally, weak cap has all but disappeared, as
evident by deepening cu field along the I-35 corridor just south of
the OKC metro. Low-level shear will continue to increase this
evening and supercells are expected to grow upscale across
southwestern OK over the next few hours. This activity will
spread/develop east/northeast along the I-44 corridor this evening.
Threat for strong, long-track tornadoes will increase along this
corridor into the mid evening hours.

..Darrow.. 05/07/2024

$$