Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 240701
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a
related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern
into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly
deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending
dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern
evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical
fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains
during the afternoon.

...Southern into Central High Plains...
Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal
heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by
surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH.
Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the
deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained
southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across
eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the
development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a
potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely
Critical highlights at this time.

..Weinman.. 04/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$
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