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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172026
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
226 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Warm temperatures, dry conditions, and light afternoon breezes can
be expected through the remainder of the work week. High
temperatures, especially Thursday and Friday will be in the middle
to upper 80s across the lowlands, likely exceeding 90 degrees for
the El Paso area. By the weekend, a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms will exist for eastern portions of the forecast
area, mainly focused over eastern Hudspeth and Otero Counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with quiet
and warm weather expected through the remainder of the work week.

Zonal flow regime and quiet weather has settled in across the
Borderland Region. This means warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
light afternoon breezes each day through the remainder of the work
week. Afternoon high temperatures will steadily climb each
afternoon, remaining 5-10 degrees above the seasonal average. In
fact, our warmest days will be Thursday and Friday where high
temperatures will likely exceed 90 degrees for the El Paso metro.
Record high temperatures on Thursday/Friday are 94 and 95 for El
Paso, that said, it looks like we will come up short on both days.
NBM probabilities of record high temperature exceedance remain in
between 10-30 percent. However, other localities across the
forecast area like Las Cruces and Alamogordo have higher
probabilities of rivaling their record high temperatures for
Thursday and Friday.

For Friday and into the weekend, a frontal boundary will dive south
across the Great Plains and High Plains region, banking up against
the eastern slopes of the Central NM Mountains by Friday
afternoon/evening. This in tandem with an approaching upper level
shortwave will lead to increased chances (20-40 percent PoPs) of
isolated showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. For now,
these low-end rain/storms chances will be limited to eastern Otero
and Hudspeth counties where the deeper moisture values will lie.

As this boundary ebbs-and-flows across Far West TX and Southern NM,
the easterly push along and just behind this boundary will lead to
gusty winds Friday evening/night and then again Saturday
evening/night, especially along the western slopes of area mountains
and desert sky islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC-FEW250.
Winds light and VRB, becoming 8-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots
generally out of the SW between 19-21Z

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Fire weather conditions will be LOW to LOW-END ELEVATED through the
remainder of the work week. Min RH values will remain below critical
thresholds (<15 percent) across most of the area through Friday.
However, low level winds will be light to low-end breezy through
this period, staying below critical thresholds. Smoke ventilation
rates will be Very Good through Friday.

By the weekend, portions of NMZ113, especially within the Sacramento
Mtns along with eastern Hudspeth County will see an increase in
moisture values as a pseudo dryline banks up along the central NM
mountain chains. This added moisture will lead to low-end chances
of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Although probabilities are low and parameters aren`t eye popping as
of now, it`s worth mentioning dry lightning could possibly pose a
threat this weekend, especially over the Sacs. Areas along and east
of the Sacramento Mtn crest have higher probabilities (20-40%) of
seeing wetting rains if storms develop. However, areas west of the
crest where guidance has a tight dew point depression gradient could
see a rogue storm or two produce isolated instances of cloud to
ground lightning. Like I said, confidence remains LOW but something
to keep an eye on over the next few days as the dryline makes an
appearance for the first time this season. Again confidence is
LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  58  90  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            54  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               52  90  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               50  86  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  64  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    52  87  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              48  78  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   48  87  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                47  84  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       56  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                45  90  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             51  91  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               53  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   53  90  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             49  86  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            48  87  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    47  90  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 52  87  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                50  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  47  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                45  75  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 44  74  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  44  80  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                48  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                47  86  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             42  79  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   44  82  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    46  84  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               47  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  82  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   48  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  48  87  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               50  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers