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000
FXUS62 KFFC 131741
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
141 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

As a broad upper level ridge over the Great Plains continues to
translate eastward, a longwave trough continues to move eastward
towards the Atlantic. Northwesterly upper level flow has set up over
Georgia between these two upper level features, leading to dry air
throughout the atmospheric column. Strong winds observed across the
area have diminished, and the comparatively lighter winds will allow
for better radiational cooling early this morning. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 40s across the
majority of the area. As the ridge continues to advance eastward
towards the region, surface high pressure will settle into the
Southeast. With increasing 1000-500 mb heights as the ridge builds
into the region, a warming trend will begin during the daytime.
High temperatures this afternoon will primarily range from the mid
70s to near 80, with the exception of the higher elevations in
far northeast Georgia.

Northwesterly low level winds are expected to increase to between 10-
15 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph with diurnal mixing. Strong
winds and plenty of sunshine yesterday allowed for 10-hour fuels
to dry out to 8 percent or less across much of the forecast area,
and this drying is expected to continue today. With the airmass
remaining dry, in combination with rising temperatures and drying
fuels, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued across the forecast
area for the afternoon into the early evening.

As Sunday morning begins, the center of the surface low will be
centered over south Georgia/north Florida, and continue to move
eastward over the course of the day. As this occurs, low-level winds
will shift to the southwest, which will begin advection of low-level
Gulf moisture into the area. After the morning begins with
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s, the warming trend will
continue as 1000-500 mb heights continue to rise under the high and
ahead of the ridge. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to rise
into the low to mid 80s. A weak shortwave will traverse the upper
level northwesterly flow on Sunday, which will bring increased mid
and upper level cloud coverage. However, subsidence under the
surface high will inhibit any precipitation chances in association
with this disturbance.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

At a glance:

    - Ridging supports unseasonably warm and dry conditions through
    midweek

    - Rain chances return Wednesday and Thursday

Moving into Monday, (exiting) surface high pressure and mid-level
ridging will have overspread much of ECONUS. Under the influence of
several days of subsidence -- with effectively zero precipitation
chances until Wednesday afternoon -- expect our highs to soar into
the 80s areawide (as much as 10-15 degrees above average for mid-
April) each day through Thursday. Lows will also be quite warm, in
the upper-50s to 60s.

By Wednesday, a mid-level closed low lifting northward across the
Great Plains will support strong surface cyclogenesis -- with
progged MSLP 2 to 3 sigma below average per GEFS and Euro ensembles.
The movement of the aforementioned low(s) will nudge the axes of our
presiding ridge and surface high the remainder of the way off of the
Eastern Seaboard, cutting off the metaphorical torch of subsidence
to round off the week. Concurrently, an attendant cold front will
sweep across the Deep South, and our rain chances look to return
Wednesday through Thursday. By this time, the parent low will likely
be making its way across Michigan, and "best" frontal dynamics will
be far removed from the forecast area. For now, severe potential
appears to be negligible. Rainfall totals are forecast to be
minimal, between a tenth and three-quarters of an inch, with
highest amounts across north Georgia.

Beyond Thursday, divergence between global models regarding key
synoptic features increases significantly. Another shot of showers
and thunderstorms are possible on Friday, but details are murky.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions persist through the TAF period at all terminals. NW
winds at 10-16KT will gust between 20-26KT through 23-00Z. Winds
will shift W overnight at 5KT or less and become SWly at the end
of the TAF period. SKC will give way to FEW050-070 and FEW250
after 15Z tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  84  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         53  82  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     46  77  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    50  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        52  84  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     51  81  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           51  84  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            49  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  51  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         52  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...KAL