223
FXUS62 KFFC 280531
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
131 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

 - On and off cloud cover continues through the afternoon. Very
   light and sparse showers possible across NE GA.

 - Lows in the 50s and 60s, high in the 80s tomorrow.

Short term is dominated by 500 mb ridging sitting over the top of
the CWA with surface high off the coast pumping moisture into the
area. Some very light showers will be possible in NE GA this
afternoon though very little in the way of rain should reach the
surface. Cloud cover should fade some tonight, though some lower
clouds may build in as moisture pools in the morning across the
metro and NE GA. Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with
highs tomorrow in the 80s. RHs should remain out of fire wx
concerns thanks to moisture advection, despite strong afternoon
mixing.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

 - A warming trend this week should result in warmest temperatures
of 2024 thus far.

 - The best rain chance this week are expected in northern Georgia
Monday night and Tuesday.

Warming Temperatures this Week:

The primary story and area of greatest confidence in the forecast
remains the trend towards warmer temperatures this week. Guidance
from the EPS and GEFS continue to strongly favor ridging over the
Southeast through the end of this week. There may be a slight
weakening of the ridge on Tuesday as a weak shortwave move through
the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians, but the ridge should regain
its strength by Thursday. The day to day temperature fluctuations
between Wednesday and Friday are subtle, but Thursday continues to
look like the warmest day this week (due to the ridge axis being
overhead). The overall odds of 90 degree temperatures remain
relatively unchanged over the last 24 hours, with the NBM projecting
40 to 70% odds of 90 degree temperatures along and south of
Interstate 85 Wednesday through Friday. These temperatures should be
the warmest readings of 2024 so far. Surface dewpoints should be in
the 58 to 63 degree range Wednesday through Friday and this should
keep heat indices within a couple degrees of the actual temperatures.

Rain Chances, Monday through Friday:

The best rain potential this week continues to looks like it will
occur Monday night and Tuesday as a weak upper level trough tracks
through the region. Trends in the model guidance over the last
couple of days have indicated the best rain potential (30-70% rain
chances) with this system in northern Georgia, and this continues to
be the case with the most recent model runs. The majority of EPS and
GEFS members are producing rain in the Atlanta Metro, though amounts
are light. Given the expected convective and scattered nature of the
rainfall these lighter amounts are to be expected. Real rainfall
totals will likely show a broader range, with quite a few locations
getting nothing and few seeing totals closer to an inch. MUCAPE
values in the 750-1500 J/kg range, marginal shear (bulk 0-6 km shear
near 20kt), and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates between 6.5 and 7.0 C/km
indicate some potential for stronger storms Tuesday afternoon. At
this time though the risk for widespread severe weather remains low.

Between Wednesday and Friday the best rain chances in the Eastern
U.S. should occur along a line from Texas to the Ohio Valley. This
rainfall should occur in the interface region between a trough in
the northern Plains and upper level ridge over the Southeast.
Subsidence from the ridge should limit the precipitation potential
in Georgia. Thus most Georgians should experience dry weather during
this period. If isolated showers or storms do develop, they would be
most probably in northern Georgia during the afternoon and evening
hours. Our forecast rain chances for all three days range from 5 to
25%.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

While a FEW MVFR clouds are possible, skies will largely remain VFR
through the overnight period. Winds will be out of the SE at
less than 8kts.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  82  60  83 /   0   0  10  20
Atlanta         59  82  63  82 /   0   0  20  30
Blairsville     53  77  57  75 /   0   0  30  40
Cartersville    58  83  61  82 /   0   0  30  40
Columbus        61  85  64  85 /   0   0  10  20
Gainesville     56  80  61  80 /   0   0  20  30
Macon           58  84  62  86 /   0   0   0  20
Rome            59  83  61  83 /   0  10  50  40
Peachtree City  58  83  62  83 /   0   0  20  20
Vidalia         59  85  62  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Vaughn