Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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364 FXUS65 KFGZ 011045 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 345 AM MST Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the rest of the week. Windier, more unsettled weather returns late this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...With a shortwave passage to the north today, slightly cooler and breezier conditions are expected today. Winds won`t be too much to write home about, with peak afternoon gusts likely in the 20-30 mph range. Downwind areas of the Kaibab Plateau, Black Mesa, and Chuska Mountains will likely see the strongest gusts, where gusts of 35-40 mph are possible. More typical afternoon breezes winds ensue on Thursday, as high pressure begins to gradually build back into Arizona for the weekend. Gradually warming temperatures also return as a result. By Sunday, a much stronger trough dives southward into the Great Basin. Model guidance has come into a bit better agreement with the track of the trough, which adds a bit more confidence to the forecast. Given the track, the system will be fairly moisture starved, so any precipitation looks to be limited. The areas most likely to see any showers, will largely be the higher terrain of far northern Arizona. The main focus with this system looks to be the wind, with EPS and GEFS ensemble guidance showing a strong signal towards winds in excess of 50 mph over the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 01/12Z through Thursday 02/12Z...VFR conditions are expected with mostly clear skies. Anticipate west- southwest winds 10-20 kts in the afternoon, weakening to under 10 kts after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 02/12Z through Saturday 04/12Z...VFR conditions persist through Saturday with little to no cloud cover. Afternoon west-southwest winds, 10-20 kts, persist on Thursday and Friday, becoming stronger on Saturday, 20-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Mild and dry weather continues across northern Arizona through Thursday. Expect minimum humidity of 15 to 20% for this afternoon, decreasing to 10 to 15% on Thursday. Winds will be out of the west-southwest, 15 to 25 mph, each afternoon resulting in good to excellent mixing conditions. Friday through Sunday...A warming and drying trend is anticipated for Friday into Saturday with afternoon temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average and minimum humidity of 10 to 20%. Southwest winds increase each day, becoming strong on Sunday with widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph forecast. Areas of critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff