078
FXUS65 KFGZ 061929
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1229 PM MST Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain cool with dry conditions and
breezy afternoons through the rest of the week. Ridging returns over
the weekend with warmer temperatures expected.

&&

.UPDATE...Clearing skies are being observed this morning across
northern Arizona in the wake of last night`s trough passage.
Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today with west to
northwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph. The current forecast is on
track with no morning updates needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /417 AM MST/...The low that brought the very strong
winds and rain/snow to the region has started to move further to
the north and east of the area early this morning. While the
center of the low will be a bit more removed from our area, the
pressure gradient doesn`t fully relax and today will once again be
on the breezy side. While not nearly as strong as they were on
Sunday, we can expect wind gusts around 25-35 mph through this
afternoon.

The low pushes to the north, but it starts to cut off and retrograde.
This will allow for some of its energy to rotate through the mid
level flow on Tuesday along with the pressure gradient starting to
tighten up again, With no moisture left to push through, do not
expect any form of showers to develop. However, the winds will
become quite gusty and might near Wind Advisory levels, especially
across portions of northern and eastern Arizona. Wind gusts in the
the 35-45 mph range are possible. Near critical fire weather
conditions are also possible across far eastern Arizona on Tuesday.

The low further retrogrades and sinks to the south. As the low
pushes to the south we should actually see the gradient weaken so
expect lighter winds, more typical spring breeziness, as we go
through the week. Additionally, this low will keep the cooler air in
place across northern Arizona.

The low finally starts to break down and push to the east at the end
of the week. Again, with limited moisture do not expect any showers
to develop, though best chances for a stray, isolated shower would
be over the Four Corners region.

Ridging returns over the weekend with warming temperatures across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 06/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z...VFR conditions are
expected throughout today, with west-northwest winds gusting
20-30 kts. Stronger winds will be possible along and NE of a KGCN-
KFLG- KSOW line. Calmer winds look to return after 06Z. Southwest
10-20kts winds will develop after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...VFR conditions
should persist through the outlook period. Strong southwesterly
winds expected Tuesday afternoon, gusting 30-40 kts. Lighter W-NW
winds forecast for Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...light warming today and
Tuesday. Minimum RH in the single digits to low 20s today and
Tuesday. West winds 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph today and with
gusts 30-40 mph Tuesday. Near critical to critical fire weather
conditions possible Tuesday in eastern Arizona.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures will drop on Wednesday, but
then warm through the end of the week. Minimum RH values will remain
in the single digits-20s range each afternoon, with typical spring-
like breezes.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/Meola
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff