Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
000
FXUS65 KGGW 230909
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
309 AM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday Night:
High (80 to near 100 percent) confidence remains for an impactful
winter storm this weekend with the combination of blowing snow and
heavy snow at times. Moisture advection is initiating from the
Pacific and Gulf of Mexico with a broad low pressure system
developing over Colorado. Model soundings show the dendritic
growth zone will be broad to support higher snow ratios,
particularly on Sunday. Falling snow will be more prevalent south
and west of Fort Peck Lake, while blowing snow will be the main
factor for the most northeastern locations like Plentywood. In
fact, up to a quarter of the latest GFS ensemble solutions keep
Plentywood dry, giving the lowest confidence for impacts there
while winds still gust up to 40 mph. Elsewhere, a general 4-8
inches is likely to be common with some higher amounts such as
from upslope enhancement favored along the Big Sheeps or Little
Rockies.

The snow bands are playing out as expected so far this morning
with a round of lighter snow, followed by a break as winds pick up
and the main event moves eastward this evening and lingers through
Sunday. The Winter Storm Warning accordingly starts at 3pm and the
snow/wind/cold combination for newborn/expecting livestock is
being highlighted.

Monday through Wednesday:
While the snow will taper off and winds become calmer, the fresh
snow cover and northwest flow results in a much colder than normal
forecast. There is moderate (60%) confidence that many locations
in northeast Montana drop to near or below zero Tuesday morning.
While skies become more clear at times and inversions will develop,
fog concerns due to daytime melting are limited at this time.

Thursday onward:
Slightly warmer temperatures are favored along with some unsettled
conditions lead to moderate (30-50%) confidence for light
precipitation to return by Thursday night.

-Zanker

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR becoming mostly IFR after 18Z (down to
LIFR in heavy snow)

WEATHER PATTERN: An initial band of light snow is spreading
northeastward this morning which will reduce flight conditions to
at least MVFR. Winds will increase and lead to blowing snow by
this afternoon as there is a general lull in the falling snow.
Heavier snow and continued blowing/drifting across runways is
likely starting this evening and will overspread most of the
area.

WINDS: East at 15-25 kts, gusting as high as 35 kts.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Monday
for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Daniels...Dawson...Eastern Roosevelt...Garfield...
McCone...Northern Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...
Prairie...Richland...Sheridan...Southwest Phillips...Western
Roosevelt...Wibaux.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.