000
FXUS65 KGJT 231728
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1128 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures and breezy conditions the next
  few afternoons with elevated fire weather concerns.

- Unsettled and cooler conditions arrive Thursday onward, with
  precipitation chances becoming more widespread by the weekend,
  as a series of storms move through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The radar is looking fairly active as expected with elevated
moisture and instability working through the confluent flow
aloft. Most of this has been virga with an occasional sprinkle
making it to the ground as it falls through the inverted V
profile. PVU plots aren`t much help picking out a distinct wave
helping lift but rather the passing jet aloft is most likely helping
to release instability to produce the showers. IVT and PWAT
anomaly shows the moisture plume lifting to the Wyoming border
through the day as the southern stream ridge builds in behind
the retreating northern stream system moving out of the Northern
Plains. This will keep some threat of convection redeveloping
across the north this afternoon. Measurable precipitation will
be more probable over the terrain as this warm and highly mixed
atmosphere is more likely to produce gusty winds in the lower
elevation. Temperatures remain well above normal and not sure I
am liking the fact we are tying records set in the drought year
of 2012 which is again the year of record for today at Grand
Junction at 89. We shouldn`t hit that but we will again see
plenty of sun and mixing and we should start the day off quite a
bit warmer. The thin moisture anomaly gets pushed farther North
tonight into Wednesday as southerly flow increases with the
next storm system approaching the SoCal coast late in the day.
Temperatures should remain in the 10 to 15 degree above normal
going into midweek with some relief coming beyond. Hot...dry and
windy conditions the next few afternoons will continue to keep
elevated fire concerns in place. If fuels were available
critical fire weather conditions would develop...outdoor burning
is not recommended the next several days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Gusty southwest winds are expected on the nose of a jet streak
working northeastward over the Four Corners by Wednesday
evening. Moisture and cloud cover will increase by Thursday with
some scattered shower activity turning up Thursday afternoon.
This trend will continue into the weekend, including more
widespread precipitation chances. Unsettled weather comes from a
series of shortwave disturbances coming ashore in the PACNW and
pinwheeling around broad cyclonic flow anchored over Canada.
Temperatures Thursday and beyond will swing back to the cool
side of climatology with afternoon highs around 10 degrees under
late April expectations. This should come as no surprise, given
the cloudy and wet pattern that works through the area late
week and into the weekend. Multiple pulses of cooler air behind
each successive wave will keep some snow showers in our mountain
forecasts this weekend. Daytime temperatures above freezing
will keep net accumulations pretty meager, but a few overnight
snow showers Thursday, Friday and Saturday will likely find an
opportunity to accumulate on colder surfaces before daybreak.
Models nose a transitory ridge in Sunday that will dry out most
of the West Slope and start another warm up, but does include
some showers on the mountains Sunday afternoon in the unstable,
post-frontal environment. Deterministic model spaghetti plots
dry things out Monday with broad ridging and return seasonal
temperatures back to the mix.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Winds will
increase this afternoon and decrease after sunset. Isolated
showers are possible around KHDN and perhaps KEGE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT