Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 260548
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1148 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/snow continues this afternoon with minimal
  accumulations expected. A few rumbles of thunder possible.

- A disturbance moves through tomorrow bringing another round of
  rain and snow showers. 2 to 4 inches of new snow for the
  mountains with local amounts reaching near 6 inches possible
  by Wednesday morning.

- Below normal temps start to warm up Wednesday onwards as high
  pressure builds in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The broad trough that affected our area over the weekend has
shifted to the Plains but our unsettled weather will continue
through the short term. Cool temperatures will also persist with
highs running about 10 degrees below more seasonal normals.
Midlevel instability aloft, as indicated by moderately steep
lapse rates and some CAPE, along with daytime heating have
allowed plenty of scattered showers to form across the area with
off and on snow and rain showers being reported. Ouray,
Steamboat Springs, Aspen, and Telluride have reported snow for
much of the day but the good news is that any snow that falls
will melt on pavements/roadways so impacts will be minimal aside
from some wet roads. A lightning strike was noted just south of
Ignacio so yes, there`s plenty of instability in the atmosphere
today. As the day progresses, activity should start to lessen
but not completely end. The NAMNEST is also bringing a weak and
shallow shortwave across the CWA from this evening through
tomorrow morning. Models favor northern areas seeing some light
(.1 inch QPF or less) precip for the overnight hours with an
uptick over the Flat Tops and northern mountains Tuesday
morning.

A stronger shortwave will move through during the day Tuesday and
with all the ingredients mentioned above still in play, look
for more rain and snow showers. Coverage will be greater than
that seen today as will precip intensity. In fact, guidance is
suggesting a quick 2 to 4 inches of snow from noon through 6PM
tomorrow over the highest elevations of Colorado and the
eastern Uintas in Utah. Amounts for the 24 hour period...from
6AM Tuesday through 6AM Wednesday...will range from 4 to 6
inches but, again, with the highest amounts expected over the
higher terrain and the off and on nature of the precip, won`t
issue any headlines. Like today, road temperatures will be warm
enough to keep roads wet versus snowy. Of course, any strong
convective activity could put down a quick burst of snow that
would stick so we`ll be keeping an eye on how this plays out
tomorrow. Just be aware that if travelling over any mountain
passes, the chance will be greater for some minor snow
accumulations. For those areas the stay dry, clouds will still
remain across the area and help with keeping high temps on the
cool side. The warmup kicks in Wednesday onwards.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

By Wednesday morning, the last ripple brushing the northwest
Colorado mountains will push east of the Divide, opening the door
for a transitory ridge to slide overhead. This ridge will bring
mostly dry conditions to the Western Slope with some continued
passing clouds. Benign weather prevails through Wednesday night
before the next area of low pressure elongates off the West Coast.
This system will settle just offshore of the Pacific Northwest on
Thursday, gradually dropping farther south Thursday night and into
Friday. A shortwave kicked out ahead of the parent system will help
weaken the ridge as it lifts into the Intermountain West Thursday.
Moisture associated with this wave as well as the shift to south-
west flow aloft will filter into the forecast area. In response,
guidance is projecting scattered showers will develop over the
northern tier of the CWA as early as Thursday morning as the base of
the shortwave grazes these zones. For now snow levels look to remain
above 7kft and, unfortunately, they will continue to climb, most
notably Thursday afternoon / Friday as southwest flow strengthens
over the Desert Southwest. Strong warm air advection will see
temperatures rebound to several degrees above normal as we head into
the weekend with the lower desert valleys potentially climbing into
the low to mid 70s by Saturday. The jet rounding the base of the
next system will settle overhead by Thursday, resulting in breezy
conditions each afternoon.

The strong closed low will ominously spin off the coast of southern
California Saturday and Sunday before finally nudging slowly inland.
With such a southerly track, the Western Slope doesn`t look to
receive much in the way of upper level support from this system
itself, though moisture wrapped around it will likely advect into
the area. However, another impressive trough will spin over central
Canada during this time, potentially breaking off a secondary trough
on its backside which could dive south towards our region during the
same timeframe. Still lots of detail to hone in on with this next
big system so time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Low CIGS will prevail across the divide areas due to the remnant
system slowly moving eastward, resulting in ILS CIGS at times.
An area of light showers will move across northeast Utah into
northwest and west-central Colorado overnight, possibly
producing some very light virga showers and breezy conditions at
times. Otherwise, VFR should prevail with MVFR at times in lower
CIGS and any showers. Scattered showers will redevelop Tuesday
afternoon across the high terrain with VCSH at most areas due to
the scattered nature. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible
but confidence too low to include VCTS in TAF. Scattered to
broken skies should remain through the next 24 hours with
scattered shower activity here and there and breezy afternoon
winds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...MDA


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