357
FNUS73 KGRR 100830
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Unit 15 Range 1 Rx...Fort Custer National Gaurd
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
430 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Expecting some patchy cumulus cloud development during the middle
of the day with a deep mixing layer. Light breeze should be mainly
from the northwest trending west.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........61 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................44 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 9 to 10
                    mph shifting to the west around 9 mph in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7200 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 10 to 13 mph shifting to the west
                    around 12 mph late in the day.
Smoke dispersal.....800 /excellent/ at ignition. Max...820
                    /excellent/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM
Sky (%).........40     52     44     16     26     52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............61     63     63     62     56     52
RH..............44     41     41     41     53     63
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 10  W 10   W 9    W 6    SW 5
20 ft wind gust.14     15     16     14     9      7
Mix hgt (ft)....7000   7100   6300   4100   500    400
Mixing wind.....N 12   NW 10  NW 12  W 12   W 8    SW 8
Haines index....4      5      5      5      4      4
Smoke disprsl...800    740    730    470    40     30

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening, then rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph increasing to around 10
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 7 to 9 mph shifting to the west
                    around 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....170 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    30 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until midday. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms through early afternoon, then
                    chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 61.
RH..................Min 53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms through early
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 18 to 26 mph shifting to the northwest 23
                    to 29 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....290 (fair) early in the morning increasing to
                    1340 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Scholten
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413620.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL osterlandlee@gmail.com