Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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665 FXUS63 KICT 102337 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 637 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet with seasonal temperatures continue through Saturday - Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday morning into next week -- best chances Sunday into Monday - Severe weather is not expected over the next 7 days && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 As of 2 PM, a shortwave, midlevel ridge axis was sliding across the central and southern Plains. An associated surface ridge axis extended from eastern CO through northeast OK. This ridge axis has resulted in light northerly winds across the forecast and should continue to be the case overnight. Benign weather will continue over the next 24-36 hours across the state. Temperatures will remain seasonal for early to mid-May standards in the 70s to near 80. The next chance (80-100%) for showers and thunderstorms arrives Sunday into Monday as a decaying midlevel low slowly moves across the central Plains. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest PW values will increase to near 1" by Sunday morning, which should support moderate rain at times. Latest NBM probabilities reveal the entire forecast area has a greater than 70% chance for receiving at least 0.50" from Sunday through Monday night. Midlevel ridging will slide into the central US Tuesday, briefly ending rain chances. The next midlevel shortwave trough approaches the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing rain chances back to the area. Again, an overlap of shear and instability appears unlikely which should keep the severe thunderstorm potential low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Few to scattered VFR clouds will gradually diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Winds will generally remain northwesterly at around 5 to 15 knots through the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...JC