Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 270522
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1222 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024


...Updated for Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight with most locations
in the teens and 20s.

- Above normal temperatures return with highs in the 70s by
  Friday. Gusty winds will also cause some fire wx concerns for
  Fri afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows a broad upper trough
through the Central CONUS with one vort lobe moving into the
Northeast with another piece of energy tracking across Northern
Mex. At the surface, high pressure extends from Central Nebraska
through Western KS and into TX, with a deep sfc low over the
Western Great Lakes.

Clear skies and light winds will setup great radiational cooling
conditions tonight which will allow for overnight lows to drop to 10
to 15 degrees below normal. Many locations over central KS will drop
into the teens with 20s over the remainder of the forecast
area. Plan to issue a freeze warning for southeast KS which is
further along in their growing season compared to areas further
west. 850mb theta-e advection along with increasing isentropic
lift will bring some light rain and sprinkles to southwest KS
into the OK Panhandle on Wed with the majority of this activity
staying southwest of the forecast area.

Northwest flow aloft will setup across the Plains for Thu as the
surface high slides southeast. This will setup some good downslope
conditions allowing highs to get back to seasonal averages. Surface
low pressure will strengthen on Fri as upper flow becomes more
southwest which will bring even stronger southwest winds for
Fri afternoon and early evening. Confidence is high that we`ll
see widespread highs in the 70s for Fri. There is good model
agreement in a couple weak upper perturbations sliding across
the Central/Northern Plains Fri night that will allow a weak
cold front push as far south as at least Central KS on Sat,
providing some cooler temps to much of the CWA.

Southern and Central Plains will quickly get back into return
flow for Sun as a deep upper trough starts to dig across
Central/Southern CA. Feel there will be an opportunity for some
elevated convection Sat night and especially Sun nigh into Mon
morning north of a warm front that will be quickly lifting north.
Will have to keep an eye on Sun and especially Mon for surfaced
based convection as both GFS and ECMWF bring-in some 60
dewpoints and a surface trough/dryline set to move through.
Wouldn`t be shocked to at least see one episode of severe wx
through the Sun-Mon time period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR. Light and variable winds will continue through early
afternoon tomorrow, then turn mainly out of the south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Fire weather concerns will ramp-up for Thu and especially Fri as
southwest winds increase.

Light winds and seasonal temperatures will bring safe burning
conditions to the entire region for Wed. Low pressure will
strengthen over the High Plains for Thu which will allow
southwest winds to increase with gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range
expected for the afternoon hours. Southwest winds will increase
even further for Fri with sustained speeds 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 for locations along and southeast of the KS
Turnpike. RH values Thu will be in the 40-45% range with 35 to
40% for Fri. So, somewhat higher RH`s and grasses less curred
will likely keep the grassland fire danger from getting into the
extreme category. However, widespread very high will be in place
for Fri.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...KMB
FIRE WEATHER...RBL


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