Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261144
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cold today/tonight.

- Warming trend late in the week with temperatures above climo.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Upper low will continue to move northeast away from the area
early this morning with wrap around flurries/drizzle ending
by dawn. Otherwise, a cold northerly wind flow will grip
central/eastern Kansas today with low clouds slowest to clear
southeast Kansas within the moist low level thermal trof. Kansas
will remain situated within the mean longwave upper trof across
the central conus through Wednesday as another shortwave rounds
the base of the trof and slides eastward across the southern
Plains. Despite limited low level moisture, some mid-level
lift/moisture looks to graze portions of southern Kansas with
perhaps enough top-down saturation for a few sprinkles/trace
rainfall for the Oklahoma border counties of south central
Kansas Wednesday afternoon. The longwave upper trof is expected
to move bodily eastward Wednesday night with ridging aloft
translating over the Plains for Thursday. The rising
geopotential heights and return southerly low level flow
portends to a milder day with temperatures returning closer to
seasonal climo.

Modest westerly flow aloft will prevail over the area on Friday as
an upper trof moves across the northern Plains. The associated weak
cold front looks to drop southward into northern Kansas late in the
day. So most locales, especially south of I-70 should realize a
much warmer day with low level thickness values/850-925 mb
temperatures supporting highs well into the 70s. Upper flow will
back slightly more southwesterly over the weekend, downstream
of the developing upper trof/low settling over southern
California. Surface frontal boundary looks to waver across the
area. Despite the presence of the front, rather weak/nebulous
lift and meager moisture look to limit measurable precip chances
initially. However as we head into Sunday night/Monday, a bit
more baroclinicity and moisture advection in concert with a more
significant shortwave ejecting from the Southwest conus upper
low into the Plains may provide better precip chances.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

MVFR cigs will continue to linger across the area thru the
morning hours. Cigs will be clearing from west to east as we
head toward the afternoon. The edge of the lower cigs is
currently just west KGBD and KRSL.

Breezy northwest winds will continue through much of the day
before turning light and variable late evening and overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Muted fire weather concerns the next couple of days with
unseasonable cold today and light winds on Wednesday. As we head
into the latter half of the week, warmer temperatures and a bit
more wind will elevate the fire danger, though modestly low
daytime humidity levels should preclude critical fire danger
levels. That said, a few hours of very high fire danger is
possible Thursday afternoon in central Kansas and Friday
afternoon across the Flint Hills and south central Kansas.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...KMB
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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