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000
FXUS62 KILM 150538
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
138 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure brings unseasonably warm and quiet
weather through at least midweek. A series of weak disturbances
bring only a slight chance of showers towards the end of the
week and into the weekend. Temperatures continue to be warm
throughout the week, with a cooldown possible by late in the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major updates made to the forecast at this time. 6z aviation
discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A bit of a summer-like surface pattern in place with high pressure
offshore. Meanwhile in the mid levels the highest heights will be
over the western Gulf leading to a WNW flow locally. Even as the
light southerly surface winds try to increase dewpoints this flow
aloft will continue to provide the area with some very dry air.
As such dewpoints tomorrow will lean towards the drier envelope
of all available guidance, a strategy that worked out well this
afternoon. Even if the surface winds fail to moisten the atmosphere
much they will be quite effective in warming it; most places away
from the water warming into the upper 80s, some 10-12 degrees
above climatology.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet forecast period here, with offshore high pressure maintaining
an influence on the area. A weak backdoor cold front tries to push
southward Monday night through Tuesday, but should still remain
north of the area. This does increase moisture, but this should
only manifest in an increase in clouds. Highs Tuesday easily
reach the mid-to-upper 80s inland, with lower 80s at the coast.
Lows each night in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast still looks relatively quiet in the long term forecast
period. Offshore high pressure still maintains an influence
Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s each
day. A weak front and shortwave moves through Thursday, but that
does not appear to bring anything in the way of rain chances.
This weak front does clear out the skies a bit by Friday, with
more of the same expected. Slightly better frontal systems and
associated shortwaves are due by the weekend, but those only
seem to bring slightly better rain chances. Highs in the 80s
continue through most of the weekend, with a possible cooldown
by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. Clear skies. Light southwest winds through daybreak will
turn briefly westerly in the morning. Southwest winds around 10
kts with gusts to 15 kt this afternoon, with more of a southerly
component at coastal terminals with sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...High pressure will sink south and east through
the period taking up a summer-like position offshore. South to
southwesterly flow expected, generally in the 10-15kt range.
Wind waves continue but a developing SE swell will make for
waves that will build from their current rather diminutive
values (currently just 2 ft all the way to 41013) to the 2-3 or
perhaps 4 ft range.

Monday Night through Friday...Southwesterly flow remains locked
in at 10-15kts through Thursday evening. From there, a weak
front approaches the area Thursday night into Friday, where
winds will veer westerly, northerly, and then easterly by Friday
afternoon. Seas consistently linger in the 2-4ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MBB/IGB