Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
396
FNUS52 KILM 171249
FWFILM
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
849 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Rain chances will increase again this weekend as a new storm
system advances eastward across the Southeast. As the low exits
the Carolina coast Sunday, a cold front will push offshore
bringing below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Low.
NCZ105>110-180500-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate,
Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach,
Southport, and Sunset Beach
849 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Today Tonight Sat
Cloud Cover Pcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Precip Chance (%) 20 40 50
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 2 2 3
Max/Min Temp 84 66 84
Min/Max RH (%) 54 99 68
Wind20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var S 5
Wind20ft/Late (mph) S 4 Lgt/Var SW 7
Precip Amount 0.00 0.08 0.43
Precip Duration 0 2 2
Precip Begin 2 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 76/1000 1900 73/0900
Dispersion Very Poor
Haines Index 4 4 3
DSI 2 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4900 3200
Transport Wind (mph) SW 9 SW 14
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 44100 44800
ADI Early 30 Fair 16 Gen Poor 36 Fair
ADI Late 46 Gen Good 5 Very Poor 46 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 9 6 7
Max LVORI Late 3 7 3
Min VSBY Early 1 Rain 7 6 Rain
Min VSBY Late 7 7 6 Rain
Turner Stability A E B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs in the upper
70s. Minimum RH 76 percent. Chance of showers 70 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 67 percent. Northeast winds 15 to
20 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH 97 percent. Northeast
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
57 percent. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Maximum RH
100 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 55 percent.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH
54 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
NCZ087-096-099-180500-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
849 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Today Tonight Sat
Cloud Cover Pcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Precip Chance (%) 20 60 60
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 2 3 3
Max/Min Temp 85 67 83
Min/Max RH (%) 52 100 67
Wind20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var S 4
Wind20ft/Late (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var SW 6
Precip Amount 0.00 0.15 0.34
Precip Duration 0 3 5
Precip Begin 2 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 76/1000 1900 71/0900
Dispersion Very Poor
Haines Index 3 4 3
DSI 2 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 5000 3200
Transport Wind (mph) SW 9 SW 14
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 45000 44800
ADI Early 34 Fair 15 Gen Poor 35 Fair
ADI Late 54 Gen Good 5 Very Poor 45 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 9 6 8
Max LVORI Late 2 8 3
Min VSBY Early 1 Rain 7 6 Rain
Min VSBY Late 7 6 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability A E C
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. West winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 72 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 64 percent. Northeast winds 5 to
10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
98 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 80. Minimum RH 52 percent.
North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
West winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
SCZ054>056-058-059-180500-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews,
Georgetown, Murrells Inlet, Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris,
Green Sea, and Aynor
849 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Today Tonight Sat
Cloud Cover Pcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Precip Chance (%) 20 50 60
Precip Type Tstms Showers Tstms
LAL 2 2 3
Max/Min Temp 85 68 84
Min/Max RH (%) 52 100 67
Wind20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var SW 5
Wind20ft/Late (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var SW 6
Precip Amount 0.00 0.04 0.31
Precip Duration 0 2 3
Precip Begin 3 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 76/1000 1800 74/0900
Dispersion Poor
Haines Index 4 4 3
DSI 2 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4900 3600
Transport Wind (mph) SW 8 SW 15
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 39200 54000
ADI Early 31 Fair 15 Gen Poor 41 Gen Good
ADI Late 43 Gen Good 7 Poor 55 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 9 7 7
Max LVORI Late 3 7 3
Min VSBY Early 0 Rain 7 6 Rain
Min VSBY Late 7 6 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability A E B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 75 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 68 percent. Northeast winds 10 to
15 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH 97 percent. Northeast
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
57 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Maximum RH
100 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 55 percent.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 54 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-180500-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
849 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Today Tonight Sat
Cloud Cover Pcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Precip Chance (%) 20 60 60
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Max/Min Temp 84 67 83
Min/Max RH (%) 52 100 66
Wind20ft/Early (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var SW 4
Wind20ft/Late (mph) Lgt/Var Lgt/Var SW 6
Precip Amount 0.01 0.11 0.17
Precip Duration 0 3 5
Precip Begin 2 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 75/1000 1900 71/0900
Dispersion Very Poor
Haines Index 4 3 3
DSI 2 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 5000 3500
Transport Wind (mph) SW 8 W 17
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 40000 59500
ADI Early 31 Fair 12 Poor 38 Fair
ADI Late 46 Gen Good 7 Poor 69 Good
Max LVORI Early 9 7 8
Max LVORI Late 2 8 3
Min VSBY Early 0 Rain 6 Rain 6 Rain
Min VSBY Late 7 6 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability B E B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 75 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
65 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 80. Minimum RH 53 percent. North
winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 52 percent.
West winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal. Precipitation above normal.
$$
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE BURN CATEGORY VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
NOT USED 0 0 TO 14759
0 TO 17249 1 14760 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499 2 33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749 3 45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999 4 60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER 5 112000 OR GREATER
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND DISPERSION FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
STAGNANT NEAR CALM
CALM VERY POOR 2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH POOR 5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH FAIR 9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH GOOD GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE EXCELLENT
ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.
$$