Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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974 FXUS61 KILN 011726 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 126 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather conditions are expected into Thursday before rain and storm chances return Friday and continue periodically into early next week. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... An upper level ridge axis will remain centered over the Ohio Valley this afternoon through the overnight. Simultaneously, a weak surface high moves overhead while a zonally-oriented cold stalls across Ohio and Indiana somewhere south of I-70. Although some instability is forecast to be present just south of the front, moisture and forcing remains weak. In fact, with ridging building in, upper level conditions are not very supportive of rain or thunder chances this afternoon/evening. Forecast lows south of the front remain in the upper 50s. Lows north of the front are in the lower to middle 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Weak surface high pressure slowly progresses east of the Ohio Valley on Thursday along with an upper level ridge axis. Southerly winds develop during the day as the surface high moves east leading to increasing temperatures and moisture through the day. Instability is expected to accompany the theta-e surge so there could be a low end thunderstorm chance by the afternoon since no capping is forecast. Any mesoscale outflow boundaries could even lead to more scattered storm formation should storms get going. DCAPE is also expected to by fairly high so locally gusty winds are possible in the strongest storms. Forecast highs rise into the lower and middle 80s across the area under a mix of sun and clouds. Surface high pressure and upper level ridge axis keep moving further east of the area Thursday night. Rain chances may initially decrease to start the night with the lose of diurnal instability before increasing late as an upper level shortwave starts approaching from the southwest. Southerly winds keep temperatures mild overnight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging across the region begins to break down on Friday into Friday night when a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley. This upper level wave helps lead to shower and thunderstorm chances by Friday afternoon and evening when instability is forecast to peak. Overall instability looks marginal and shear remains weak thus the severe risk is likely to be very low. Conditions remain mild and humid on Friday and Friday night. The Ohio Valley may be between systems on Saturday leading to slightly reduced rain chances for the daytime hours. Mild temperatures and humid conditions persist. Shower and storm chances are expected to start increasing again Saturday night into Sunday when a weak front approaches from the north. Exact timing and placement of the front is fairly uncertain thus the exact timing of showers and storms remains rather vague. It is very possible the chances for rain increase when CAM runs come in as the time frame gets closer with the front dropping down. The severe risk remains very low since instability and shear are weak. The front may finally push south of the area later on Sunday into Sunday night briefly leading to a reduction in rain chances and temperatures to start the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances redevelop Monday or Tuesday with the return of warm, humid conditions. Some storms might be stronger since a potentially supportive upper level pattern with increased shear is expected. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions persist through the afternoon and evening with only passing mid and upper level clouds. After 0600z, some MVFR visibility restrictions will be possible due to a front stalling in the area. Only have KLUK showing BR overnight since the site often has river valley fog on calm, clear nights. VFR conditions return for all sites after 1300z. Thunderstorm chances start to increase after 1800z. Southwesterly winds around 10 knots persist through 0000z before veering and turning turning to the north or northeast after 0600z when a cold front pushes south. Winds veer back to the south after 1200z Thursday when an area of high pressure moves east. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times on Thursday through Sunday. MVFR ceilings are possible Friday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Campbell