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000
FXUS61 KILN 250123
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
923 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will bring cool conditions
tonight, with dry weather through Thursday. A warming trend will
begin by the end of the week, as an upper level ridge moves east
of the region, with precipitation chances beginning again by
Friday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A cold front has now moved most of the way through the ILN WA,
with northerly flow bringing drier air into the region. There is
a large surface high over the Great Lakes, but also a notable
amount of relatively cold air at 925mb-850mb. This cool air
aloft will keep clouds in place for a while, and the potential
for these clouds to dissipate overnight is one of the main
challenges for the forecast. Have extended duration of cloud
cover across the northern portion of the FA to reflect current
and near-future conditions.

Frost and freeze conditions remain a concern for the area
overnight into Thursday morning, but confidence is not high in
how this will end up working out. A Freeze Warning was issued
for the areas where some 32-or-lower readings appear likely,
even if clouds do remain in place. A Frost Advisory was issued
for a few additional tiers of counties. Despite a favorable
temperature forecast, formation is actually somewhat uncertain,
with winds not going completely calm and some potential for
clouds to persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The surface high will drift eastward into Quebec on Thursday,
with generally light northeasterly flow over the Ohio Valley.
Mostly clear skies should allow plentiful sunshine, with highs
still below normal, but at least getting back into the lower 60s
after a notably cooler-than-normal stretch.

By Thursday night, some high level clouds will be moving into
the area as an upper ridge moves off to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
By Friday late morning, the warm front of the low to our west
will be lifting into the Ohio Valley, pushing showers out ahead
of it. Currently, precipitation looks to arrive Friday afternoon
into evening hours on the nose of a strong LLJ. Instability
looks pretty limited through this time frame, so widespread
storms are not anticipated, but rumbles of thunder may be heard.
Additionally, southerly winds will mix down to the surface,
resulting in gustier conditions.Temperatures rise to the upper
60s/ low 70s.

The warm front continues to lift through the region and by
Friday overnight hours, some additional instability builds into
the area, resulting in continued chances for thunder as the ILN
CWA becomes warm sectored. Overnight lows fall to the upper 50s.

The area remains in the open warm sector, sandwiched under
strong southwesterly flow between the low pressure to our
northwest and the high pressure that has been creeping toward
Bermuda for the weekend. This results in wind gusts around 40
MPH, particularly in west central Ohio on Saturday and gusts in
the 30 MPH range on Sunday. As of right now, we look to stay
just below advisory criteria, but this might be something to
watch. Additionally, thanks to the strong warm air advection
regime, Saturday`s hit the upper 70s with Tds in the upper 50s,
while Sunday`s highs reach the low 80s, Tds near 60.
Precipitation chances aren`t overly high during the weekend,
while we`re in the warm sector, however, cannot rule out periods
of showers/storms, so have kept slight chance to chance in
grids.

By Sunday night, the upper level trough will have moved toward
the western Great Lakes, dragging a secondary surface feature
along with it. This brings the associated cold front into the
Ohio Valley, forcing showers and storms out ahead of it for
Monday. This will be one to watch for some stronger storms as
ample shear should still be present and patchy SBCABE. High
temperatures on Monday will be dependent on how quickly the
front moves through but for now have gone with low 80s.

By Tuesday, we`ll notice slightly cooler temps in the post
frontal regime (though, still above normal!) as high pressure
builds in from the south and the area dries out.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will prevail under high pressure except at DAY where MVFR
ceilings linger under an inversion. Will monitor DAY as the
timing of return to VFR there remains uncertain. Otherwise,
cloud cover will be scarce, and winds are forecast in the 5 to
10 knot range while direction shifts from north to east.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.
Thunderstorms are possible on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ042-051-053>055-
     060>065-070>074-080-082.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-
     043>046-052-056.
KY...None.
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Coniglio