Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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120 FXUS63 KILX 091725 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1225 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather is on tap for the end of the week with overnight lows dipping into the 40s tonight through Saturday night. - The next significant chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will hold off until early next week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure currently centered over central Illinois will track slowly eastward today. Despite rising surface pressures, a trailing upper trough extending from the Great Lakes into the Plains will sink southward...providing synoptic lift for scattered showers. May see a couple thunderstorms as well, as NAM MUCAPE values exceed 1000J/kg from late morning through the afternoon. High temperatures will mainly be in the middle to upper 60s, but will reach the lower to middle 70s along/south of I-70 where partial sunshine will be observed. Widely scattered showers will persist tonight as the trough drops into central Illinois. Overnight lows will dip into the 40s. As the wave gradually departs, synoptic subsidence on its back side will provide partial clearing and dry weather on Friday with highs remaining in the middle to upper 60s. Barnes .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Another short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan will drop southeastward into the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. While the strongest lift will remain N/NE of central Illinois, scattered showers will be possible across the N/NE KILX CWA Friday night...with the showers pushing further east into Indiana by Saturday. Generally dry weather is expected over the weekend...with highs around 70 on Saturday climbing into the middle to upper 70s by Sunday. A cut-off upper low spinning over the Great Basin will gradually get shunted northeastward early next week, with models showing typical timing differences at this range. Based on consensus, think the low will slowly approach from the southwest and begin to impact the weather across central Illinois by late Monday. As the feature gets closer and deep-layer moisture increases, showers and thunderstorms will become likely Monday night into Tuesday. Barnes && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Look for predominantly MVFR ceilings north of a line from near KI63-KSPI-KPRG this afternoon, with perhaps periods of IFR ceilings developing north of that line. Greater coverage of MVFR ceilings will drop southward with time late this afternoon and this evening as a frontal boundary moves southward. Coverage of showers should be fairly extensive north of that line as well, with lesser coverage southward. Enough instability is present for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop as well. That mention has been added to the KDEC TAF, where the probability is greatest. Look for ceiling heights to perhaps come up to low VFR overnight, remaining MVFR in some locations. A gradual increase in ceiling heights is forecast during the day Friday. AAT && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$