Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250149
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
949 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Partly Cloudy and breezy Tonight
- Gusty to windy conditions Monday-Tuesday, Wind Advisory in
  affect 6PM Monday through 6PM Tuesday
- Moderate rainfall, few non-severe storms Monday Night-Tuesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed.
Quiet weather conditions are expected through the overnight
period as a dry airmass is still settled over the region. Current
observations show winds have tapered off slightly after sunset.
Look for winds to gradually pick up through tonight with a
tightening pressure gradient ahead of an advancing low pressure
system currently centered near southwest Kansas. Elevated winds
and increasing cloud cover will limit diurnal cooling. Expect
temperatures to remain in the 40s across most of the area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Rest of the Afternoon...

Temperatures are on their way to approaching normal late March highs
in the 50s. As is often the case, mixing has brought down lower dew
points and higher wind gusts than a model blend solution. Thus,
adjusted the grids to the lower HRRR dew points, which are close to
current observations, and also bumped up winds and gusts a few knots
as as plenty of sunshine has resulted in efficient mixing underneath
a 3K foot inversion. The combo of the gusty winds, low RH potential
and and marginal fuel moisture supports elevated fire danger which
is mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. For additional
details, see the Fire Weather section of this AFD.

Tonight...

Tightening surface pressure gradient ahead of a strong High Plains
system will result in a breezy night tonight, although winds may
briefly drop off at sunset before the gradient does tighten
sufficiently. Hi-Res soundings and satellite trends suggest high
clouds will be increasing late this evening and tonight as the
system gets close and upper flow becomes southwest. The increase in
cloud cover and breezy south and southeast winds suggest nighttime
lows will be in the late evening with steady or slowly rising
temperatures overnight.

Monday...

The Plains low pressure center will only gradually move east across
eastern Kansas on Monday. The breezy return flow will pump warmer
temperatures along with moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. Would
not completely rule out a late day shower over the Wabash Valley,
otherwise, lack of a notable front or wave aloft in the fast
southwest flow, prefer to keep it dry through the day. BUFKIT
soundings suggest if any sort of mixing can occur outside of the
thicker clouds, winds could gust to near advisory criteria. With
moist low level advection occurring, the RH should remain high
enough for another elevated fire danger afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

By late Monday evening into the early overnight hours, rain and
gusty winds will quickly settle in from the west. With tight
pressure gradients and a strong mid to upper level jet overhead
gusts nearing 40 to 45 mph will be possible Monday night through
much of the day Tuesday. These winds have prompted a wind advisory
to start out the period which will last through Tuesday evening.
Within embedded storm cells there is a marginal chance of localized
severe winds being brought down to the surface and maybe some hail
within any stronger storms that may form. This threat is largely for
during the day Tuesday as daytime heating adds weak instability and
moderate lapse rates. Confidence on widespread severe threat is low,
but can`t rule out the isolated potential embedded within storms.
Main threat will be the non-thunderstorm winds blowing around loose
outdoor items. There will also be an isolated threat for brief
localized flooding Monday night when the bulk of the QPF is expected
to fall. In total, currently thinking there will be total QPF
amounts between half and inch and one inch across central Indiana.

Behind the initial system, surface high pressure will settle into
the area allowing for dry weather and calmer winds through the
end of the work week. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the
period with highs from the mid 40s to low 50s. Temperatures will
slowly warm through the remainder of the long term with highs in
the 60s to low 70s throughout Easter weekend. Some models show a
surface low tracking through the Great Lakes early in the weekend,
potentially bringing slight rain chances for the area Friday
night. A short wave shortly following may bring a better chance of
rain for the end of the weekend but there are uncertainties at
this time due to slight differences between models.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Impacts:

- Non-convective low level wind shear around 1500-1800 feet
  03Z-15Z Monday

- Winds 120-160 degrees with occasional gusts around 18-24 knots
  through 13Z Monday

- Winds 150-180 degrees to near 20 knots and gusts to around
  30-35 knots after 13z Monday

Discussion:

Low-mid level dry air in place over the region will allow VFR
conditions to persist through Monday afternoon. Should only see some
cirrus increasing in southwest flow aloft. Mid and high end lower
clouds are possible Monday afternoon as moisture begins to stream in
ahead of an approaching low pressure system.

Non-convective LLWS is likely around 1500-1800 feet from 03Z
tonight through 14-15Z Monday morning. Breezy SSE winds will
continue through the TAF period and should increase on Monday.
Gusts around 30-35 kts are possible during the day Monday, mainly
near HUF/LAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Melo


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