Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
217 FXUS64 KJAN 032059 CCA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 300 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Tonight through Sunday night...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occuring across much of the area this afternoon, and this will continue before ending from west to east early this evening. Skies may clear some overnight, and with good radiational cooling patchy areas of dense fog will be possible early on Saturday. An HWO graphic will be issued for this potential. Another short wave will move into the area Saturday afternoon and this will kick off another round of shower`s and storms. With a little better lapse rate/instability on Saturday, a strong to possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon. Little will change on Sunday as moisture continues and yet another in a series of short waves move across the area. Drier air begins to move into the area Sunday night. Highs through the weekend will be in the 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s./15/ Monday into Friday...the overall forecast for next week remains similar. Focus will be well above normal/heat early into mid week, potential for severe storms mainly in the Thu-Fri periods, then followed by a marked cool down. The driver for the increasing warmth will be with a pattern shift to more of a ridge influence with the ridge axis over us Mon, then the ridge shifting eastward as we see a powerful system dive across the Rockies and Central Plains. We will be on the western periphery of the low level ridge/high and that will provide a decent S/SW lower level flow to bring in moisture and those well above normal lower level temps. Additionally, we will see capping in play which will keep rain/storm chances more in check. There`s some 20-30% type PoPs for Mon-Wed, but this is more due to model variability and I expect this to lower some. The exception could be in the far N, where more proximity to the better lift could allow for better chances. As for severe weather potential...this is mainly looking like potential for a round or two sometime in the Thu/Fri periods. PoPs have come in higher which fits and will follow. Look for chances to continue to increase for a particular period as better timing starts to work itself out. Like yesterday and prev guidance, uncertainty is pretty decent on specifics and timing, which is often the case at day 6-7. However, the pattern and consistency for the needed ingredients (instability, steep lapse rates, moisture, shear, lift) continue to show up. I`ll also add, later Wed night is a period to watch as well as there will likely be severe activity on-going to our NW/N which could migrate down into some of our northern area. Lastly, the ingredients I noted are all reaching very solid levels and fitting of a potentially upper end type event(s). Details will determine the type of severe, but at this time, confidence is on wind/hail. In the wake of this system, the trends are for a solid front/trough passage for the weekend which would bring much cooler conditions to the area. /CME/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail across TAF sites this afternoon and this will continue through much of the day as showers/thunderstorms move across the area. The bulk of the storms will move east of the area this evening, but expect stratus/fog to develop overnight after 09-10Z with sites becoming IFR/LIFR. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 82 64 86 66 / 80 10 40 30 Meridian 85 63 88 65 / 70 30 40 30 Vicksburg 81 64 86 67 / 80 10 40 30 Hattiesburg 84 65 88 66 / 50 10 30 10 Natchez 80 64 86 65 / 60 10 40 30 Greenville 80 66 84 67 / 60 20 40 40 Greenwood 81 65 84 67 / 80 30 40 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 15/CME/