000
FXUS64 KJAN 190031
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
731 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow: The severe weather and flooding threat in
the northern portions of the CWA will be the main focus for the
short term forecast as a slight and marginal risk areas for severe
will continue through midnight tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to
60mph, hail up to golf ball sized, severe storms possible will be
the main threats for this event as well as a tornado not being
able to be be ruled out. Flash flooding will also be possible near
the ArkLaMs borders due to the repetitive nature of the
forecasted storms heavy rainfall over the same area. While we
still expect this to be scattered thunderstorm event, if storms do
form there is the possibility for supercell development which
could produce hail up to golf ball sized, damaging wind gusts and
a tornado cant be ruled out. The timing of the main brunt of this
weather will last until around midnight tonight. As storms wrap up
expect isolated shower and storm chances to remain through the
overnight but will remain mostly above I-20 with best chances
above Hwy-82. Going into the morning dense patchy fog will be
possible again in the southeastern portions of the CWA as excess
moisture and light winds will make development easy and more
likely due to persistence. Going into the early morning a cold
front will be in the process of dropping into the CWA allowing
rain chances in the north to persist through the afternoon as the
boundary moves off to our east. Rain chances will continue in the
northeastern portions of the CWA through the forecast period./KP/

Saturday through Thursday: The pattern change will continue
through the weekend and into early next week as an upper-level
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico refocuses over the southwestern U.S.
and upper-level troughing becomes more prevalent over the eastern
U.S. Building surface high pressure will make its way southeast
out of the High Plains and toward the Mid- South behind a cold
front Sunday into Monday. It should bring drier air and initially
cooler weather to the Gulf Coast region. Flow aloft over our area
will be mostly zonal in the early to midweek time frame, and it`s
possible a shortwave moving north of our area and its attendant
cold front could trigger a few showers or thunderstorms as the
system glances by our region. For now, POPs are an uncertain 20
percent for next Wednesday. Temps will warm to above normal again
as the high pressure shifts eastward. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Persistence looks like a decent forecast for this period with low
stratus/fog expected to be concerns for later tonight into Friday
morning with LIFR/IFR categories likely. Primary fog concerns
should be in the PIB/HBG areas once again. Expect ceilings to lift
later in the morning with daytime heating/mixing, and MVFR/VFR
categories should prevail by afternoon. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  82  64  73 /  30  20  10  50
Meridian      65  87  62  75 /  40  20  20  40
Vicksburg     66  80  61  70 /  30  20  10  50
Hattiesburg   67  87  66  83 /  10  10  10  40
Natchez       66  85  64  76 /  10  10  10  30
Greenville    65  72  56  63 /  60  20  30  70
Greenwood     66  74  57  65 /  60  30  20  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/NF/EC